Tonight is going to be fairly short because I have to be at work quite early and I would like to get to sleep before midnight. Next week I am going to (hopefully) get in touch with my friend who happens to be a math PhD student and do a little statistical work to help you decide which sealed packs you should ask for during the holidays. My plan is to analyze the potential return that you can get whenever you buy a sealed pack of Magic the Gathering cards, but, more on that next week.
Enough about the future let's look at the week that was. Before we start two quick things, and then I will dive right in!
First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.
Second some directions: In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it. This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.
Alright, with that out of the way, here is Return to Ravnica:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
There are absolutely no cards that had a solid gain from last week to this week. That says a lot about where Return to Ravnica within the Product life-cycle which i wrote about a little bit for the first time here. There has been a lot of this set opened, and while Standard is very diverse right now (THANK GOD), we probably aren't going to see much more in the way of innovation until Gatecrash spoilers start up (although I hope we still do). That leaves us in the final stage of the Product life-cycle or "Decline". We will continue to see the prices of Return to Ravnica cards drop until something new comes along and breathes new life into it ie, Gatecrash coming out and giving some of the previously unused/low demand cards new purpose. We may still see a few innovative decks that will steer prices one way or another, but unfortunately there wasn't any of that this week.
TRENDING DOWN:
I suppose if a card isn't trending up, then it is trending down right? No. Many of the cards are staying, for the most part, around the same price give or take a few cents. I am going to briefly list the cards that have moved down more substantially than just a few cents.
Abrupt Decay $6.42 (-0.56): Still falling this week, although it may be slowing down.
Angel of Serenity $21.70 (-1.46): I attribute Angel of Serenity's drop to the fact that after Craterhoof Behemoth's spike in both price and play players packed more and more graveyard hate into their decks/sideboards. The angel did have two weird days there where her price was up, but those may have just been weird data things. Keep an eye on her either way and if she continues to go down, I would suggest cashing out while she is still above $20.
Armada Wurm $9.78 (-1.33): Still falling steadily. I'm not sure where the wurm will end up but I know that it is does not appear as though it will turn around any time soon.
The Shocklands ($$ --> S): They are all down a little bit, some more than others. Keep in mind though that when people stop opening Return to Ravnica there will be a demand for these and their prices will go up. All 5 of these are excellent pickups even as they go down in price.
Chromatic Lantern $2.41 (-0.14): A part of me will be really surprised if this card ends up at $1-2, but then again I'm not going to be that surprised either. It just hasn't showed its usefulness yet, and until a 5 color control build comes together this card will keep going down. I will say one more thing, this cards Commander appeal isn't high right now, because anyone playing Commander already has easy access to it, but where the potential lies is a year or so down the road when new Commander players need this, and you have it.
Cyclonic Rift $2.29 (-0.23)
Desecration Demon $1.98 (-0.19): Letting your opponent control your choices is not something that Black decks want to be doing. This card is going to end up < $1.
Detention Sphere $4.97 (-0.31): With all of the haste running around, any deck that wants to play this is already dead before it gets any real value out of casting this. Bummer.
Dreadbore $5.01 (-0.46): I still wish this was instant. However, once there are Planeswalkers running amok in Standard again, this is going to be the go to card.
Epic Experiment $2.98 (-0.31)
Isperia, Supreme Judge $1.71 (-0.17): Usually I lump the Guild Leaders into one category, but I thought I would do something different. Today I am going to pose a question. Why isn't anyone playing Isperia? Probably because she is somewhat fragile, but if the right deck could take advantage of your opponent not being able to kill her (maybe because they don't have any removal left) then it could really prosper from drawing a ton of cards. Then again Isperia could never see any Standard play and may be consigned to Commander forever.
Jace, Arcitect of Thought $28.41 (-3.68): Jace is still dropping steadily, any guesses as to when he will stop?
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord $2.59 (-0.26): What could Jarad potentially do in Standard? He can be big, he can come back at the cost of as low as one land, and he can fling things at your opponent's face. I would love to see a Jarad, Splinterfright, Ghoultree Dredge style deck come out of nowhere and do something funny, but it will probably never happen. Alas, Jarad will probably end up being stuck flinging Lords of Extinction in Commander.
Lotleth Troll $4.45 (-0.60): Ironically your dollars buy your a lot more, rather than a lotleth troll these days (pun absolutely intended).
Loxodon Smiter $3.52 (-0.16): An uncounterable 4/4 for 3 mana with no drawbacks and an occasional upside just doesn't really do it any longer. That really is too bad.
Mizzium Mortars $2.79 (-0.38)
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius $4.68 (-0.47): I am finally going to buy/trade for one of these soon. Right when he hits rock bottom.
Nivmagus Elemental $1.05 (-0.18)
Rakdos's Return $7.73 (-1.01): If this gets as low as Sphinx's Revelation did I might actually pick a few of these up. Until then, all I can watch it do is fall.
Rakdos, Lord of Riots $4.59 (-0.40): See the above comments on Niv. I think I may just be able to get both of them for $4.
Sphinx's Revelation $23.43 (+0.21): Okay, soooo Sphinx's Revelation is technically up in price for the week, buuuuut for the past 4 days it has gone down in price and I didn't want to say it was trending up, when it seems to be headed back down. If you are waiting for this card's price to go up more before you sell it you may be waiting for a while, then again the past four days could be no indication of what is going to happen in the oncoming weeks. Watch this card's price movement and be smart about what you do if you have some.
Supreme Verdict $4.08 (-0.32)
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice $7.40 (-1.05): Trostani is still a life gaining machine (and a delicious pasta snack), and once you see the price on the (much more splashable) Rhox Faithmender in a bit, you may have some second thoughts about Trostani. I wouldn't put too much stock in her however, until she has some actual growth.
Vraska the Unseen $11.70 (-1.08): I wish she would hurry up so I can nab her on the cheap.
Worldspine Wurm $2.34 (-0.13): I don't think I've ever talked about this card. That is probably because he has seen zero Standard play. That is okay though because Worldspine is just biding his time until Wizards "accidentally" puts Polymorph back into standard.
That is it for the sadly downward marching Return to Ravnica, now lets look at Avacyn Restored
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Cavern of Souls $20.38 (+0.24): This is old news now, but laughing at counters is still good. Rare good lands have a tendency to get pricey and stay that way, and I don't this card is going to be any exception.
Restoration Angel $14.21 (+0.52): It stands to reason that if a card has been moving up for a few weeks in a row, that its price will continue on that trend. I see the angel moving into a very good spot pricewise as we get closer and closer to Gatecrash's release.
Silverblade Paladin $10.38 (+0.53): Silverblade has broken $10. At this rate of growth he will be $12+ by New Years. Pick yours up now if you still need them because they are just going to keep going up. On the other side of the coin, wait to unload on yours until he peaks. That is all
TRENDING DOWN:
Avacyn, Angel of Hope $9.26 (-0.15)
Bonfire of the Damned $26.88 (-1.52): Okay so Bonfire has been coming down pretty consistently, but what's that you cry, eyes wide and mouth agape? "But Kyle it looks like it is coming back up!!!" You would be correct in your observation, but I believe I can explain. You see, Bonfire was included in the American Midrange build piloted to a 1st place finish by Ryan Hipp in this weekend's TCGplayer MaxPoint 50k Championship. Does that have something to do with the price bump for the past two days? Absolutely. Should you read into it and start buying Bonfires now before they are $50 again? Probably not, but it does not hurt to keep a close eye on this card, as we have seen what it can do in the past and know that it does have the potential to get really really expensive again.
Craterhoof Behemoth $14.55 (-1.89): And speaking of hyped cards . . . Craterhoof is falling off of its super hyped status this week. Due to an overabundance of answers and peoples willingness to play them this reanimator strategy came out of nowhere, won, and was promptly sided for. Look for this card to keep plummeting down and sell yours accordingly.
Entreat the Angels $24.11 (-1.66): Entreat was surprisingly absent from all three of the main decks and the sideboards of the top three players who piloted American Midrange this weekend. I have no doubt that its drop in popularity has something to do with its somewhat steep drop in price. Sell/Trade accordingly.
Griselbrand $10.21 (-0.32)
Killing Wave $1.37 (-0.11): Mutilate is just more efficient. In other news, no one is playing this kind of black deck anymore.
Temporal Mastery $10.70 (-0.34)
That is it for Avacyn Restored, here we go on to Dark Ascension.
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Falkenrath Aristocrat $19.41 (+0.44): Not much to say here, other than BR Beats is a thing, and doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon. Falkenrath shouldn't have trouble breaking $20, the question is how much more is she going to go up (if any) after that happens.
Hellrider $9.27 (+0.83): This dude really isn't going to quit. Right when you think he is going to start slowing down or top out he just keeps on climbing. I don't think we are going to see him stop any time soon either. If you have a bunch of this guy hanging out (like me) then you should keep patient for now until he peaks, and then bail on yours (but keep a playset for your RDW, because obviously this guy is the real deal).
Huntmaster of the Fells $20.84 (+1.37): I remember reading about Huntmaster when he first came out and how some people compared him to "2 bears" and how that just wasn't really "enough". I find that pretty interesting given how much play it has seen and how popular this card has become. I don't foresee this dropping back below $20 so if you are planning on using this in the future, I suggest going ahead and trading for yours now.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $22.31 (+1.77): I hear that Planeswalkers that can protect themselves and make your team awesome are pretty good and Sorin 2.0 certainly fits into that category. As far as my prediction, he doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon, so watch for Sorin to keep on keeping on in the coming weeks.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $6.13 (+0.25): I think yesterday and today's price bumps were just the beginning of Thalia's rise to $8. I could be wrong, but then again decks that are playing Thalia are also playing cards like Silverblade Paladin which made it all the way up to $10.
TRENDING DOWN:
Geralf's Messenger $9.50 (-0.40): It still surprises me that this card is down rather than up, but at the same time, I think anyone who wanted to run BR Beats probably already had it and therefore actual demand for it hasn't been very high.
Gravecrawler $10.23 (-0.58): As usual, please see the above comments.
Yep, that about sums it up for Dark Ascension, let's look at Innistrad now.
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Geist of Saint Traft $33.79 (+0.21): Only 21 cents, but at the same time, we all know Geist gets the job done, and clearly he got the job done for the 1st and 2nd place finishers in that Tcgplayer tourny I mentioned earlier. I would certainly keep an eye on him and see if it looks like he is going to go up any more, because he is poised to do so.
Past in Flames $1.95 (+0.08): I assure you there is a very good reason that I am talking about Past in Flames (that doesn't have anything to do with the fact that there aren't many cards that are actually trending up this week in INN). That reason, is that this card is up over 50 cents since I started collecting data back in October and to my knowledge, no one is even playing it. That definitely says something (although I'm not sure what).
TRENDING DOWN:
Bloodline Keeper $4.61 (-0.16)
Hinterland Harbor $9.35 (-0.37)
Isolated Chapel $10.37 (-0.20)
Liliana of the Veil $24.59 (-0.56): Lili is another one of those cards that just tends to fluctuate around the same price. Just because she is down this week does not mean she is going to stay down.
Olivia Voldaren $17.75 (-0.73): Olivia is going back down slowly, silently. If she hits $7-8 again, Buy her and just wait, because if history repeats itself for the 3rd time, then she will shoot back up all of the sudden and you will be a richer man for it.
Sulfur Falls $9.01 (-0.52)
Woodland Cemetery $11.13 (-0.52)
Sorry about the lack of commentary on the Cards trending down in Innistrad, but I feel like I, unfortunately, didn't have much to add tonight. Especially since 4 of the cards were the Innistrad Duals, that have been trending down lately.
Finally we are at M13
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Garruk Primal Hunter $10.29 (+0.16): I'm not mentioning Garruk because he had a huge gain this week, I am mentioning Garruk because he is trending up and I don't foresee him coming back down. Garruk could very well get into the $20 range before he is done in Standard, especially if there is a creature centered Gruul deck (there will be) that makes a splash in Standard.
Glacial Fortress $2.93 (+0.07)
Rhox Faithmender $3.90 (+2.80): That is not a typo. Rhox Faithmender is almost up to $4. I'm not sure what is going on, but if I had to wager a guess (and this could be completely wrong) I think people want to gain some life against BR Aggro and as far as splashable easy to cast creatures go, Rhox fits that bill pretty nicely. If anyone knows precisely why this card is on the up and up, please let me know.
Rootbound Crag $2.50 (+0.11)
Sunpetal Grove $4.94 (+0.16)
Thundermaw Hellkite $27.27 (+3.63): I've heard that game winning Mythic Rares are good. Thundermaw Hellkite certainly does support that theory. I think he will end up at $35 if he has a great run, and at the least 30 if he has an okay run. If you have Thundermaws hang on to them for a while and you will be glad you did.
TRENDING DOWN:
(In list form)
Ajani, Caller of the Pride $12.09 (-0.38)
Akroma's Memorial $3.65 (-0.18)
Elderscale Wurm (1.86 (-0.15)
Liliana of the Dark Realms $9.86 (-0.61)
Mutilate $2.34 (-0.14)
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker $3.95 (-0.19)
Sublime Archangel $26.48 (-0.78): It very well may be that Sublime has peaked. Keep an eye on her price movement and bail accordingly, although to tell you the truth I don't think she is going to go down very much.
Talrand Sky Summoner $3.00 (-0.23)
Thragtusk $23.06 (-0.32): See my previous post's advice on Thraggy. I still (from a financial prospective) jump ship just yet.
That just about does it. There were a couple of other cards from M13 that were trending down that I didn't mention because they were either small potatoes (in the grand scheme of things) or because they are usually trending down and there isn't much else to say about them.
Rather than simply leaving you this week, I just wanted to take time and hype up next week's article. I try and provide a little something at the end of each week's price trend analysis and this week, I didn't have anything. Part of that is due to the lack of time that I had this week to prepare and the fact that I have to be up in 7 hours and I like getting a good night's sleep.
But fear not! Next week I plan on having an article that is going to statistically analyze which pack (in Standard) you should buy to have the most potential for profit. In other words, if you spend $4.00 on a pack of Magic cards which one gives you the greatest chance of pulling a Rare/Mythic that is worth more than the $4.00 you initially invested.
I hope you enjoyed this week's episode of City of Traders and that you are already looking forward to next week's installation! Until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
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