Good evening and welcome back to City of Traders!
I hope that you have had a good week and that you bought 20 copies of
Craterhoof Behemoth before it skyrocketed, but more on that later.
As always, I am going to look at how the Rares and Mythic Rares currently in Standard are trending and, at the end of the article, I will offer some advice about investing in sealed MTG product.
And now, and as always, two things before we get to the good stuff:
First a disclaimer: Please take my advice at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic
and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is
purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.
Second some directions: In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it. This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.
Let's get started with Return to Ravnica!
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP!
Ash Zealot $3.24 (+0.13): Not a ton of gain, but still a good card that has its applications in Standard (RDW, BR Aggro) and in Modern (Aggro). With
Snapcaster's multi-format stardom it is no surprise that his direct foil is gaining in both popularity and in price.
Deathrite Shaman $9.14 (+0.30): Deathrite was up to $9 for a little while following Yuuya Watanabe's 2nd place finish in Pro Tour Return to Ravnica, but then it fell for a little while. It seems to be headed back up, and if it follows in
Craterhoof Behemoth's giant footsteps, then it will go up as well, all thanks to Martin Jùza.
Sphinx's Revelation $13.36 (+3.64): Still kicking myself for missing this two weeks ago, but it goes to show that you should never underestimate a powerful Mythic Rare. This might be the next
Entreat the Angels (which isn't going anywhere either), as you get to cast it at any time for its miracle cost (which happens to be its regular cost). I'm not sure where this card is going to end up, but I don't foresee it slowing down anytime soon.
That is it for the card that are on the rise, now lets see what is moving down:
TRENDING DOWN
¡
Abrupt Decay $7.16 (-1.12): While Abrupt is still falling, it is starting to show signs of slowing down. I am not sure if this means that we are going to see it level off and stay there, or level off and start going back up. Although it hasn't seen a ton of play in Standard, this is a fine card for Modern as it gets past the myriad of counters within that format.
Armada Wurm $12.45 (-1.85): I like this card, but as I remarked last week, its lack of immediate game furthering impact hurts it just a small amount. Granted not every deck is going to be able to answer such a large threat, but the ones that are are keeping Armada Wurm on the down trend. No matter where this card's price ends it 10 power and toughness is nothing to sneeze at. Keep an eye on the Wurm.
The Shocklands: All of these are trending down not because they are bad, but because they are plentiful. Not only do people have them from Return to Ravnica, they have copies from Ravnica: City of Guilds. I will say this about the shocks though, remember when people needed the Scars lands when Innistrad came out and their prices blew up? Yeah, just something to keep in mind :D
Chromatic Lantern $2.69 (-0.28): When 5 Color Control becomes a thing in the future (a guy can dream, right?) then it will need this, and when it does its price will go back up. Watch for this card to drop to its lowest price, then pick them up because worst case scenario, you can always trade them off to future EDH players.
Cyclonic Rift $2.73 (-0.22): This just isn't the kind of finisher decks are looking for right now in standard. I do love this cards EDH applications, but don't see it price going up any time soon.
Desecration Demon $2.19 (-0.15): I wonder how long it will take this to get to $1.00, any thoughts?
Detention Sphere $5.51 (-0.37): I got some great feedback regarding this card and my ramblings about it last week (thanks Dustin) and would like to point out that even though its prices is still trending down, the decks that can support both the blue and white in the mana cost are getting a huge upside over Oblivion Ring. That having been said, this card is still trending down and I am curious to see how low it will go. Once it hits bottom, it will come back up because it is a good card so get these as they get cheaper.
Dreadbore $5.72 (-0.28): Dreadbore is still moving down, but if there are any new planeswalkers and creatures in Gatecrash (there will be) then this card may still play a part in standard yet. Similar to D-Sphere, when this card hits it bottom, pick it up, because it is good enough to impact standard yet.
The Guildleaders $$$ --> $$: Still trending down. They have fun EDH applications, but they aren't (with the exception of Trostani and occasionally Niv) seeing any play right now in Standard. I think their lack of awesomeness the turn you play them may be what is hurting them in Standard since they all require additional mana/cards or the ability to swing to become relevant.
Jace, Architect of Thought $34.61 (-3.66): If you are in this purely to make money sell Jace now, because I don't think his price is ever going to get as high as it was ($50.43). If you are in this to play your best game of Magic, hold onto Jace, because we have no idea what Dimir and Simic will bring to the table. Oh and because Jace is awesome.
Lotleth Troll $5.59 (-0.97): Still not seeing any price spikes the troll continues to fall. Golgari might get some goodies from Gatecrash, but until then, I don't see the zombie's price rising any.
Mizzium Mortars $3.55 (-0.30): As a targeted creature killer this card is sweet, although its inability to go to the face in a pinch hurts it a little. As a red board wipe, this card sacrifices a cheaper mana cost for an opponents only one-sided effect. Personally I would rather have a red option with a
cheaper mana cost in standard.
Necropolis Regent $2.22 (-0.09): This Mythic has "win more" written all over it and despite making a sweet pair with
Corpsejack Menace continues to fall.
Nivmagus Elemental $1.47 (-0.18): I want to see this guy in an infinite combo. Someone should make that happen. Until it does, this guy will end up in the bulk bin.
Precinct Captain $1.41 (-0.09): I think there was some weird price thing a week ago that had this at 1.59, so I based the loss on the prior day. The real reason I wanted to talk about this card is because I failed to mention it in my list of 25 cards that could make an impact after Gatecrash. Boros will be a thing and it will need 2 drops, and whether the Boros player's 2 drop of choice is this or Ash Zealot, one would do well to keep an eye on this card.
Rakdos's Return $9.15 (-0.17): This is a strong finisher in the right deck and if Sphinx's Revelation is any indicator this card has potential to blow up suddenly. Even though it is trending down, keep an eye on the Return.
Supreme Verdict $4.58 (-0.33): This is possibly the most powerful 4 mana wrath wizards has printed, since it is uncounterable, but until the right deck picks it up, its price will continue to fall.
Vraska the Unseen $13.43 (-1.15): Oh Vraska is still trending down this week? Huh, fancy that. I'm still waiting for her price to bottom out so I can pick her up for EDH, I'm thinking $4 - $5 but that could be low.
Onward to Avacyn Restored:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date* |
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*
Revenge of the Hunted is mispriced and is not (sadly) $11.00 as of 11/19/2012*
TRENDING UP!
Craterhoof Behemoth $16.00 (+12.39): BOOOOM!!! This guy. Have you met Standards newest all-star Mythic? Leave it to Martin Juza, the person who pioneered "Wolf Run Ramp", to take another sweet mythic and make it the linchpin of the entire deck. This card's price has skyrocketed since Juza piloted his aptly named "Hoof there it is" deck to a 1st place Grand Prix finish and Uhhhhh, since I gathered today's prices this card has already went up $0.95 from the screen shot. I have no idea where this will end up, but if Standards other
sweet reanimation target is any indicator, then the Behemoth is set to keep climbing. Get them while they are hot!
An aside and some forethought. If more people are running/going to be running reanimator, then it would stand to reason that those who are not will begin thinking of ways to counteract its game plan, ie. mess with the graveyard. Cards like
Ground Seal,
Rest in Peace,
Grafdigger's Cage, and
Tormod's Crypt will be featured in sideboards, and could potentially increase in price. Keep this in mind going into the future.
Restoration Angel $13.42 (+1.05): Even though
Craterhoof is a hard act to follow, Restoration Angel is still showing a solid upward trend. Given Standard's ability to easily make a card's price (even
some rares) $20+ this card may still have some room to grow.
Sigarda, Host of Herons $11.50 (+0.20): Not a huge gain this week, but it is important to note that Sigarda is up quite a bit from when I started collecting this data ($8.27 on 10/06) which gives us a +$3.23 gain. Sigarda's unsacability makes her an attractive threat and her price could still continue to increase.
Silverblade Paladin $8.49 (+0.75): Still some growth here. Silverblade paladin may have slipped a few cents from yesterday to today, but I still have faith that between his current appeal and his post Gatecrash playability he will continue to trend up.
Somberwald Sage $1.55 (+0.32): Meet
Craterhoof Behemoth's complimentary good. Complimentary goods are things like katchup and mustard or peanut butter and jelly. When you purchase one good, then you must also buy the other. If you are running Craterhoof Behemoth a la Juza, then you need Somberwald Sage as well. I don't think this card is going to have nearly as much of a price jump as the Mythic, but it will still see some mild increase.
TRENDING DOWN¡
Bonfire of the Damned $29.18 (-1.93): Still falling, now under $30. At this rate it will be under $20 just in time for Christmas!
Cavern of Souls $19.69 (-0.38): Technically down, but this card is positioned to go up. If people are running more counterspells to stop
crazy bombs it stands to reason that the wise player will begin running ways to counteract those counters. Even if it is stricken to the sideboard, a $20+ dollar card is still a $20+ dollar card.
Entreat the Angels $26.80 (1.26): I'm sad that Entreat is down, but the prices don't lie. This card does have miraculous impacts in formats other than standard, so it probably won't fall too hard, but if it does and you are looking to make some money, I would suggest getting rid of yours if they continue to trend down.
Griselbrand $10.68 (-0.27): My condolences to everyone's favorite reanimation target/breakfast cereal spokesman but Standard has a new kid on the block, one that wins the turn he comes down, rather than doing something sweet and then usually cinching the game the next turn. I don't think Griselbrand is going to drop too much, but I believe it will continue to fall. (It is important to note that in Legacy players
Sneak Attack or
Omniscience Griselbrand, not
Craterhoof, so that could have an impact on his price.
Vexing Devil $6.72 (-0.20): Only down a bit, but down none the less. I think Vexing's problem is (and I know I am not the first to comment on this) that he isn't what you need when you need it because of your opponent's option to choose. Additionally his printing in the Event Deck pumped even more copies into the market. I say bail on these if you can.
And now we have Dark Ascension:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP!
Hellrider $6.68 (+1.22): I don't know what to say about Hellrider that I haven't said before. He is still going up, which is sweet and he is still burning faces, which is also sweet. If you team needs more burn, there is no better 4 drop in standard. A $1+ price increase in a week is nothing to sneeze at and if this trend continues Hellrider could possibly hit $10.
Huntmaster of the Fells $18.94 (+0.33): Since there isn't much to talk about in the world of Dark Ascension, it doesn't hurt to mention when one of the sweetest Mythics in standard has some upward movement. I see this card over $20 and maybe even as high as $25+ when Gruul is out. Still a strong pick up as long as it will be in standard.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $18.43 (+0.45): Here is my advice with Sorin, wait until his price peaks, then sell/trade all of yours as quickly as possible, because when his prices peaks it will be because the Duel Deck will be coming out and just like Koth and Venser his price will continue to fall.
TRENDING DOWN¡
Falkenrath Aristocrat $18.90 (-0.32): Even though Jon Bolding's Grand Prix winning 1st place BR aggro deck featured the full 4 of this card, Juza's Behemoth build is stealing all of the spotlight. I think the reason there wasn't a giant price jump here is because A) people already knew it was good, and B) because there was not much more room for this card's price to go. I would keep a close eye on what Falkenrath does and then evaluate whether or not you want to unload on yours if they start to trend down.
Geralf's Messenger $10.16 (-0.52): Even though he didn't have a whopping showing in the top 8 of both GPs (16 total mainboard copies between both events' top 8s) Geralf's Messenger is still a fine card, I just think (based on the data) his price is going to continue to fall.
Gravecrawler $11.07 (-0.29): Despite a week long trend down, Gravecrawler has turned up for the past two days. I attribute this to his overall playability both in Standard and along side
Carrion Feeder in Legacy. Given that, I don't see his price falling too much, but at the same time, it is important to note Zombie's popularity has still dropped.
That is it for DKA now lets visit the INN!
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP!
Clifftop Retreat $9.93 (+0.59): Not sure if Standard play is behind this or if people are planning for the future, but either way, Clifftop appears to be trending up. I was hoping that its price would drop lower and make it an cheaper pick up before Gatecrash comes out, but this may be what we have to work with.
Geist of Saint Traft $33.21 (+1.71): Although the past two days Geist has slipped back down, he was showing strong growth. I am not sure if we have seen a peak yet, but it is important to note that Geist is the second most expensive Mythic in Standard second only to Jace (which it may soon surpass). I think Geist is done climbing for now, but at the same time he is still one to watch.
Past in Flames $1.83 (+0.05): Yeah, Yeah, five cents big whoop, buuuut, I like this card. I am not sure what part it will (if ever) play in constructed Magic but if it ever does, then having 4 to 8 of these in your collection may not be a bad thing and getting in at < $2 doesn't seem like a bad deal.
Sever the Bloodline $2.51 (+0.29): I think Sever may finally be done climbing, for now, but to be fair $2.50 is a respectable price point. Some things may change in the future so this is still a card to keep an eye on.
TRENDING DOWN¡
Garruk Relentless $14.10 (-0.26): Just because he is trending down, doesn't mean Garruk isn't irrelevant in Standard. Will all of the 1/1s that are going to be running around trying to Reanimate a
Craterhoof Behemoth Garruk is going to have plenty of creature to fight. His price may still rise again.
Liliana of the Veil $24.99 (-0.92): Some small movement down, but Lili still holds a special place in my heart. I like all of the fun stuff she does, and if it weren't for
Loxodon Smiter, then I think she would have a stronger hold on Standard. Luckily she is still running amok in Modern. I don't think her prices is going to slip too terribly much, so I wouldn't bail on yours just yet.
Olivia Voldaren $18.44 (-0.41): Olivia may have peaked for now, but she is a lose cannon as far as price is concerned. I don't think she is going to go down much. Keep an eye on her.
Sulfur Falls and
Woodland Cemetery $9.72, $12.28 (-0.27) (-0.67): Izzet isn't doing much, and Woodland came in the same Event Deck as
Thragtusk. I think both of these will continue to fall.
That wraps up the Expansions, now lets look at the Core Set, M13!
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP!
Garruk Primal Hunter $9.20 (+2.04): Garruk was a very expensive planeswalker during his earlier time in Standard, and we may be seeing that Garruk coming back. Offering card draw in a color with very little card draw, this is one of my favorite walkers in Standard.
Sublime Angel $26.92 (+1.79): It should come as no surprise that this card is increasing in price. It has applications in quite a few decks and is going to continue to make waves. It is very possible that this card will reach $30+ soon. If you want/need these, get them now. If you are looking to cash in on yours, wait until they peak and then sell them for what is hopefully a sweet profit.
Sunpetal Grove $4.49 (+0.27): This is the most popular of the M13 duals for good reason, it is wildly playable, it provides the right colors of mana to play some of the strongest cards in standard, and it is a rare land which have, traditionally, done well in Standard.
Thragtusk $23.95 (+0.93): I think I am correct in saying that Thraggy has officially surpassed (this week)
Snapcaster Mage as the most expensive Rare card in Standard. No shock there. That is all.
Thundermaw Hellkite $20.48 (+2.13): It really has been a good week for Mythic Rares (sorry
Archangel's Light, better luck next week). This card will have no trouble hastily flying back up to $25+ within the next month. It is the best thing you can be playing on turn 5 in a red deck and its prices if finally reflecting that.
TRENDING DOWN¡
A list, because it is late, and I have to be up in 6 hours XD
Akroma's Memorial, Cathedral of War, Disciple of Bolas, Krenko, Liliana of the Dark Realms, Mutilate, Nicol Bolas, Omniscience, Talrand, Vampire Nocturnus, Yeva.
Nothing new here, just the usual offenders. And with that we have wrapped up the price trends for another week. Now, if you will indulge me, I would like to talk briefly about MTG sealed product from a financial stand point.
If you have ever bought a box of Magic the Gathering cards, then you know you will probably spend anywhere from $90 to $120 depending on your store's price and how much tax the state you live in charges. The thing to keep in mind with sealed boxes of cards is that the prices that I mentioned before usually apply during a set's tenure in Standard. What I would like to talk about today is buying sealed boxes as an investment and potentially making money in the future.
If you look at the prices of sealed product from the past they look a little something like this (all prices per tcgplayer.com):
New Phyrexia - As low as 129.95 + shipping
Mirrodin Besieged - As low as 107.95 + shipping
Scars of Mirrodin - As low as 92.95 + shipping
Rise of the Eldrazi - As low as 199.95 + shipping
Worldwake - As low as 325.00 + shipping
Zendikar - As low as 159.99 + shipping
Alara Reborn - As low as 164.95 + shipping
Conflux -Sold out
Shards of Alara - 169.95
Eventide - Sold out
Morningtide - As low as 258.42 + shipping
Shadowmoor - As low as 249.95 + shipping
Lorwyn - As low as 349.95 + shipping
There are several points that I would like to make here:
1. For the most part, sealed boxes of Magic appreciate in value over time.
2. If you are worried about there being a market for your sealed product, don't be. People will eventually buy these cards and you can always lower the price as long as you get back more than you spent on the initial investment, and all of these boxes are worth more than they were when they were on sale during their respective standard seasons.
3. If a set has multi-format staples in it (mana fixing land, great planeswalkers, lots of widely playable cards) then its price is more likely to be higher.
I understand that many of us are not in a position to buy bulk sealed product, but if you can, do it, hold onto it for a couple of years, and you should have no problem recouping your investment, and making a sweet profit for your trouble.
That brings us to the end of our journey for this week and I hope you have enjoyed City of Traders! It is Thanksgiving here Thursday so Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you take some time this week to remember what you are thankful for and to give thanks for all of the good things in your life. Have a great night and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
