Today I am going to delight you with the usual Magic price trend data and I am also going to provide some advice as to which pack to buy this Christmas, but more on that later. Before we dive in, here are two things that I hope you are familiar with by now.
First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.
Second some directions: In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it. This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.
Now, for a change of pace, we are going to look at M13 first:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Garruk, Primal Hunter $10.81 (+0.52): Garruk is at the highest he has been since I started collecting data back in October (he was $5.43). The fact that his price has doubled since then shows that he is a strong player in Standard and that his prices doesn't appear to be going down any time soon. Garruk has the potential to really get up there and price which makes him a card to watch.
Rhox Faithmender $4.10 (+0.20): Although his price has been fluctuating over the past week, I would like to point out that the Faithmender is still and has been for the last few days moving (slowly) upward in price. Depending on how much more play this card sees in Standard its price could certainly continue to go up.
Sunpetal Grove $5.08 (+0.14): The reason that I am mentioning this card despite its small price increase is that I believe that it will continue to increase as we move forward towards Gatecrash's release. Once that set comes out I believe Drowned Catacomb and Rootbound Crag are going to be the ones increasing (for obvious reasons). By the way, both of those are fine pickups right now.
Thundermaw Hellkite $32.90 (+5.63): Well folks, he really is that good. Thundermaw is up there as the (at the typing of this article he is $35.09 making him the most expensive) second most expensive card in standard. Whether this increase is based on hype (probably not) or based on utility, playability, and overall game-winningness (more than likely), Thundermaw does not show any sign of slowing down. Get these now if you absolutely need them, and if you are waiting to cash in on yours be patient and wait for them to peak.
TRENDING DOWN:
Ajani, Caller of the Pride $11.96 (-0.13): Even in Green White Humans, the deck he makes the most sense in, Ajani just isn't seeing play. I'm hoping Gatecrash will turn things around, but we will just have to wait and see.
Cathedral of War $2.27 (-0.27): Still Tapped.
Liliana of the Dark Realms $9.61 (-0.25): Can't she fall any faster? I'm still waiting to pick her up for EDH.
Talrand, Sky Summoner $2.85 (-0.15): I have a feeling Talrand is going to end up around $1, it's just a feeling but as far as playability goes, he saw his share when Scars was out, and I doubt he will see anymore.
Vampire Nocturnus $4.41 (-0.18): Despite the growing popularity of Vampire Tribal among imaginary deckbuilders, it comes to me as no surprise that this card is still dropping in price.
That is it for the Core Set, I hope you enjoyed the change of pace. Now we are going to look at Innistrad.
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Clifftop Retreat $10.48 (+0.29): Steady growth out of Clifftop this week. I imagine this card is going to be an all star come Gatecrash, and right now it continues to do quite well. This card's price is only going to continue going up because people are opening less and less of it, so if you don't have your playset, consider getting them now.
So, funny story. There really isn't much else happening in the way of upward trends in Innistrad. I would, however, like to point out two cards: Past in Flames and Tree of Redemption. Both have only had tiny gains this week, but at the same time, they are both still showing an upward trend. Something to certainly note.
TRENDING DOWN:
Bloodline Keeper $4.36 (-0.25): Despite the popularity of the aforementioned imaginary Vampire tribal deck, Bloodline Keeper is still trending down. He could eventually be a finisher for some Blue Black Control deck in the future, but I wouldn't get my hopes up if I were you.
Garruk Relentless $13.52 (-0.54): Garruk's popularity may be falling, but keep an eye on him because he is probably one of the most diverse 'walkers in the format right now. He kills things, he makes tokens, he makes more tokens, he tutors creatures, and he Overruns. That is quite the toolbox for only 4 mana. Oh and worst case scenario you play him before your opponent can drop their 5 cost Primal Hunter.
Hinterland Harbor $8.99 (-0.36): Similar to Clifftop, I think Hinterland's time in the sun is coming post Gatecrash.
Isolated Chapel $10.29 (-0.08): Similar to Hinterland, I think Isolated's time in the sun is coming post Gatecrash.
Liliana of theVeil $24.34 (-0.25): Lili was up around $25 for a while, but it appears as though she is falling again. Depending on how Modern and Legacy impact her price, she could be on her way down for a while.
Olivia Voldaren $16.73 (-1.02): Since Olivia is down a dollar in a week, it probably means she is going to continue to drop. Like I mentioned in a previous article, I'm going to wait until she is around $5-7 and then snatch up every copy I can find because if history repeats itself her price is going to skyrocket again.
Sever the Bloodline $2.40 (-0.12): As sad as I am to say it, I think Sever may continue to go down. It could go back up when a solid Blue Black Control build crops up, but until then, I don't think it is going to go up anymore.
I'm not going to mention Snapcaster because his price isn't going to really go down, merely fluctuate a dollar here or there.
Sulfur Falls $8.65 (-0.36): Maybe something awesome will come out down the road and make this card more playable in Standard. Until then, look for its price to continue to fall.
Woodland Cemetery $10.52 (-0.61): I expect Woodland to level out here eventually. I blame its price decrease on the overabundance of them thanks to the Event Deck, but that could very well be wrongly interpreted.
Now lets look at Dark Ascension:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Drogskol Reaver $3.27 (+0.06): There is probably nothing behind this card's price movement, but with the wild popularity of Reanimator you never know. The one thing this card does lack is it's immediate impact on the game, which is what will probably keep it from seeing too much play.
Falkenrath Aristocrat $19.78 (+0.37): Since Thundermaw Hellkite only requires that you splash one color it makes sense that this card (which requires two colors) isn't as expensive because it doesn't go in such a wide variety of decks. That aside, I think the Aristocrat will continue to go up due to Red Black Aggro's popularity
Hellrider $9.39 (+0.12): I think we are beginning to see a peak here, but I'm still not calling it. Hellrider really does do a lot for a Red Mage and its price trend definitely reflects its popularity. Keep an eye on this one and if it does look like it is going to head back down, feel free to sell yours. A word of warning though, if you are going to play any iteration of RDW anytime while Hellrider is still in Standard make sure you keep a playset.
Huntmaster of the Fells $21.68 (+0.84): This card is awesome and its price is going to continue to climb until it is around $30. That is all I'm going to say about it because it is just that good.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $22.70 (+0.39): Sorin may be hovering around a peak, but I would definitely keep an eye on him and be prepared to sell yours when his price starts coming back down eventually.
Thalia, Guardian of Tharaben $6.46 (+0.33): Thalia has slowed down a little toward the end of this week, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of her price movement stagnating yet. I think she still has some room to grow.
TRENDING DOWN:
Geralf's Messenger $8.66 (-0.74): Just because BR Aggro is a thing, doesn't mean Geralf's Messenger has to be a part of the thing. It looks as though his price is falling and doesn't show any sign of stopping. If you have some that you would like to get rid of, I recommend doing so while you can still get $8 out of him.
Grave Crawler $9.68 (-0.55): I really hate to do this every week, but the two just go together like peanut butter and brain jelly. See the above post but replace Messenger with Grave Crawler.
I know it is probably both Ambitious and Confusion, but I do need to point out the upward trend on both Increasing Ambition $0.56 (+0.08) and Increasing Confusion $1.75 (+0.05). If you can get these cards now while they are still relatively cheap, and their prices do in fact continue to go up, then you stand to make a bit of profit. I say go for it!
That brings us to the end of Dark Ascension, now let's flash forward to Avacyn Restored!
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Angel of Glory's Rise $0.67 (+0.19): This card is Reanimator's secret (well not so secret anymore) weapon against the Zombie hoard aka BR Zombie Aggro. I expect this card's price to rise to $1-2. If you have some or can still get some for cheap get them and hold onto them until its modest price spike peaks, then sell 'em before the hype wears off.
Avacyn, Angel of Hope $9.38 (+0.12): I believe something would feel amiss if I didn't make some comment about Avacyn, especially given the nature of various reanimatable targets' popularity over the past few weeks. As long as Unburial Rites is still seeing play giant game changing Mythic Rares are definitely cards to keep a close watch on.
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight $4.75 (+0.07): Once again, there is just some appeal regarding Mythic game altering Reanimator targets.
Restoration Angel $14.31 (+0.10): Technically up even if only a small amount. This card's playability isn't going anywhere any time soon so hold onto yours even though her price may be wavering a little.
TRENDING DOWN:
Bonfire of the Damned $26.20 (-0.68): Don't let Bonfire fool you, until I see solid, unwavering upward growth on this thing I am not buying in (both literally and figuratively).
Cavern of Souls $20.22 (-0.16): Although technically down, I think this card is set to keep going up in price because it really is that relevant. It will always be relevant because it neutralizes an entire color's primary ability. If "Counter target something" were an "evergreen" keyword (as defined by Mark Rosewater), then it would appear almost exclusively on Blue cards and this card single-handedly makes many of those cards irrelevant. I could go on, but the important thing to take away is that this card's price still has room to increase so don't do anything crazy yet.
Craterhoof Behemoth $13.00 (-1.55): If you have any of these you aren't using and you want to make some money on them, go ahead and bail on them. This card's hype is wearing off and its price will continue to fall.
Entreat the Angels $21.90 (-2.21): Sadly, this card isn't as popular as it was before Sphinx's Revelation skyrocketed. Miracles will always be good, but I believe Entreat's price is going to continue to fall.
Griselbrand $9.97 (-0.24): I believe Griselbrand's higher (actual) casting cost is what is holding its price back. If it were easier to hard cast then perhaps it would be more popular. Otherwise, expect more of a downward trend.
Killing Wave $1.28 (-0.09): I think this is going to end up as a $0.33-0.50 rare, since the deck that made it famous has completely fallen out of standard.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $26.80 (-0.27): Just because Tamiyo is down this week doesn't mean you should count her out. She will probably be up by this time next week. If she isn't then maybe think about trading out of her, otherwise, I would hold onto her.
Temporal Mastery $9.78 (-0.27): It appears Temporal + Brainstorm + Jace just didn't make a big enough splash in Legacy. It also appears as though this card's price is set to continue to go down, alas.
Terminus $10.51 (-0.19): I don't think this is going to go down that much, but then again people have found other ways to sweep the board of Aggro aggression.
That wraps up Avacyn Restored, so I think I'll talk about Return to Ravnica
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
For the second week in a row there aren't any cards trending up in Return to Ravnica, this makes me very sad. I suppose I will just have to wait for some awesome deck to come out and make good use of some of these cards, but until then here is a list of the cards from the set that have had substantial decline.
Abrupt Decay $5.64 (-0.78)
Angel of Serenity $19.41 (-2.29)
Armada Wurm $8.42 (-1.36)
Ash Zealot $3.25 (-0.16)
Blood Crypt $10.24 (-0.92)
Chromatic Lantern $2.32 (-0.09)
Cyclonic Rift $2.03 (-0.26)
Deathrite Shaman $9.17 (-0.12)
Desecration Demon $1.81 (-0.17)
Detention Sphere $4.52 (-0.45)
Dreadbore $4.33 (-0.68)
Epic Experiment $2.70 (-0.28)
Hallowed Fountain $11.92 (-1.32)
Isperia, Supreme Judge $1.43 (-0.28)
Jace, Arcitect of Thought $23.86 (-4.55)
Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord $2.20 (-0.39)
Lotleth Troll $3.60 (-0.85)
Loxodon Smiter $3.44 (-0.08)
Mizzium Mortars $2.37 (-0.42)
Necropolis Regent $1.98 (-0.10)
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius $4.27 (-0.41)
Nivmagus Elemental $0.91 (-0.14)
Overgrown Tomb $11.50 (-1.04)
Rakdos's Return $6.93 (-0.80)
Rakdos, Lord of Riots $4.05 (-0.54)
Slaughter Games $1.10 (-0.11)
Sphinx's Revelation $20.32 (-3.11)
Steam Vents $9.26 (-0.54)
Supreme Verdict $3.87 (-0.21)
Temple Garden $12.61 (-0.68)
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice $6.45 (-0.95)
Vraska the Unseen $10.48 (-1.22)
Worldspine Wurm $2.21 (-0.13)
Wow what a sad list of cards :( They aren't bad by any means, but the data doesn't lie. If you see something that you think is going to skyrocket in the near future, now might not be a bad time to pick it up, considering that prices are dropping all over the place.
On a somewhat more positive note, I would like to talk about Math. Wait, wait, don't go anywhere this isn't going to be a test or anything, and besides I already did the hard part, I'm just going to share my findings. But first, let me tell you a little more about how this came about.
I was wondering last week if there was a way to determine which sealed pack of Standard Magic cards you should buy given the statistical data I have been compiling. In other words, if you spend $4 of your hard earned dollars on a pack of magic cards, what are the chances that you pull a Rare or Mythic Rare worth more than your initial investment? Well I've had my diabolical math friend run some numbers for me and I would now like to present his findings:
Return to Ravnica:
Probability of getting a Rare/Mythic worth more than $4: 22%
Expected Average Value of the Rare/Mythic: 2.99
Avacyn Restored:
Probability of getting a Rare/Mythic worth more than $4: 16%
Expected Average Value of the Rare/Mythic: 2.76
Dark Ascension:
Probability of getting a Rare/Mythic worth more than $4: 13%
Expected Average Value of the Rare/Mythic: 2.19
Innistrad:
Probability of getting a Rare/Mythic worth more than $4: 14%
Expected Average Value of the Rare/Mythic: 2.61
M13
Probability of getting a Rare/Mythic worth more than $4: 11%
Expected Average Value of the Rare/Mythic: 2.44
Now a few quick notes. First, with Innistrad and Dark Ascension it would have made this process entirely more complicated if we had included the probability of pulling a Rare/Mythic flip card, so we just decided not to include them in the calculation. That means that the probability of getting more than $4 back for both of those sets may be a little higher, although not by much. Second, it appears as though Return to Ravnica has the highest probability of recouping your initial investment, so that is a very good indicator of which packs you should ask for as stocking stuffers this year. Third, this model assumes that you are spending $4 on your pack of cards. If you are getting a box of cards then you are paying less than $4 a pack and have a higher probability of recouping your investment. Fourth, the second number that you get is the average value of your Rare/Mythic rare, i.e. if you bought 100 packs then you would end up with 100 Rares/Mythic rares who's total value would be about $299 if you were buying RtR. Finally, these numbers only take into mind the Rare/Mythic Rare that you are guaranteed to get in your pack, they do not take into mind Commons, Uncommons, Tokens, or Occasional Foils that you will get. Therefore, your pack of cards will more than likely be worth more than the Expected Average Value listed above.
I hope all of that made sense and that you can put it to good use. Thanks for reading City of Traders. I really hope that you found the information here helpful and that your collection has really been gaining value because of it. Next week I think I am going to look at various trading techniques and until then, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
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