Monday, November 26, 2012

Return to Battle - 11/26/2012

Good evening everyone and welcome, once again, to City of Traders!

Today I am here to supply you with your weekly dose of Magic financial data and the trends that are currently stomping through Standard.  Additionally, I will point out which of the 310 Uncommons in standard are worth more than $0.50, which doesn't sound like a lot, but can add up quickly, or make for good additional trade fodder.

As always, before we get started I am going to offer my usual advice (about my advice), and some ever present instructions:

First a disclaimer: Please take my advice at your own risk!  I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.

Second some directions:  In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it.  This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.

Return to Ravnica is up first!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Ash Zealot $3.41 (+0.17):  Ash Zealot  has been steadily moving up and although it doesn't have the game impacting awesomeness of Hellrider, it is still, red, has haste, and has the potential to do more damage over the course of the game.

Deathrite Shaman $9.33 (+0.19):  As more and more people find uses for this card, his price is going to continually increase.  A friend of mine has compared this card to Noble Hierarch and when you think about it, the cards aren't that far off.  While Noble Hierarch ($23.35) messes up combat math in your favor, Deathrite Shaman can punish your opponents via hating the graveyard.  Both cards produce mana, and both cards swing (effectively) as a 1/2.  Get Deathrites while you can.

Loxodon Smiter $3.68 (+0.04):  Four whopping cents.  Buuut, Loxodon is still a 3 mana 4/4 that can't be countered, and on rare occasions can be seen coming into play for free.  With all of the aggro decks running rampant in standard, this is a fine early way to bog down the ground, so that you can stabailze your life total and rally in the mid to late game.  This may not be a big mover, but  I would keep an eye on the Smiter.

Sphinx's Revelation $23.22 (+9.86):  When it blew past $10 I wasn't surprised, but now that it has (quickly I might add) surpassed $20 this card doesn't even show a sign of stopping.  It might hit $30 at the rate that it has been increasing, and if you are looking to make some money by selling/trading off your copies, then I would suggest holding onto them until they peak.  Otherwise, if you need these for your deck, get them now before they get really expensive.

TRENDING DOWN:
Most of the set is going to be on this list so I am only going to provide brief commentary.

Abrupt Decay $6.98 (-0.18):  Still falling in price, although at a slower pace.  If you think that these cards are going to blow up in price grab these once they have hit bottom (which may be soon).

Angel of Serenity $23.16 (-0.39):  Judging by the strong presence of BR aggro currently in Standard, it may be that giant seven drops aren't going to be as popular.  This card may continue to drop and if it does, I suggest you make plans to depart with yours in the future.

Armada Wurm $11.11 (-1.34):  This is going to end up under $10 because of the fast nature of Standard, which is a shame, because this card is still cool in my book.

The Shocklands $$$ --> $$:  Once again, we see the Shocklands steadily falling.  These are going to be the cards (other than some of the Mythic Rares) that are going to best retain their value after the set rotates out of standard (but that is sooooo long from now) so pick up as many copies of these as you can.

Chromatic Lantern $2.55 (-0.14):  I guess this card is going to keep falling in price.  If you haven't picked any up yet for future Commander trades, then I would recommend waiting until it finishes and bottoms out.

Cyclonic Rift $2.52 (-0.21):  So far none of the Overload cards have really impacted any format (other than EDH), which is a bummer.  I hope these see some play at some time during their time in Standard.

Detention Sphere $5.28 (-0.23):  I don't think this is a bad card, so look for it to hit the bottom and then eventually go back up.

Dreadbore $5.47 (-0.25)  I feel like this card is very similar to D-Sphere so please see the above comment.

The Guild Leaders $$ --> $ These need to fall a little faster so that I can go ahead and get the ones I'm missing for my sweet commander decks.

Jace, Architect of Thought $32.09 (-2.52):  Jace's high price post Return to Ravnica release can be attributed to high demand, hype, and a smattering of actual awesome playability.  Sadly, I think he is going to continue to fall into a more reasonable price range.

Lotleth Troll $5.05 (-0.54):  BR = aggro, and GB = Reanimator, so where does that leave the troll?

Mizzium Mortars $3.17 (-0.38): I really wanted Conely's brew to win GP San Antonio, and coincidentally, so did Mizzium Mortars.  But alas, you can't always get what you want.

Necropolis Regent $2.15 (-0.07):  I really hate it when Mythic Rares are just not quite . . . Mythic enough (sorry Archangel's Light)

Nivmagus Elemental $1.23 (-0.24):  As of right now, this is a bulk rare, until some card comes out and makes this a part of a sweet combo.

Rakdos's Return $8.74 (-0.41):  I like cool game ending Mythics just as much as the next guy, and I think once the right control deck picks this up as a finisher its price is going to look a little more like Sphinx's Revelation, but until then . . . the data speaks for itself.

Supreme Verdict $4.40 (-0.18):  Alas, uncounterable wrath, we hardly knew ye.

Vraska the Unseen $12.78 (-0.65):  If only Vraska made creatures attack her like Gideon did, oh well.

Whew, what a list, that is it for RtR now lets look at Avacyn Restored.
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Cavern of Souls $20.14 (+0.45):  Surprise!  Cavern is steadily trending up, because, Surprise!  People don't like their stuff getting countered.  The fact that this card makes something uncounterable AND mana-fixes makes it a multi format all star.  If you can pick these up, I highly recommend it.

Craterhoof Behemoth $16.44 (+1.39):  So Behemoth has probably peaked at $18.21 due to its SUPER HYPE status and if it continues to trend back down should be sold immediately for, what I hope, is a sweet profit.

Restoration Angel $13.69 (+0.27):  Still moving up and still a great card.  I wouldn't let these go for a while.

Sigarda, Host of Herons $11.90 (+0.40):  Cost really does matter.  It is kind of funny to think about Sigarda in connection with the other multicolor Mythic angels from Avacyn Restored.  All three are fantastically great in their own respect, but Sigarda hits the 5 converted mana cost sweet spot that is currently the benchmark in standard.

Silverblade Paladin $9.85 (+1.36):  Here is the growth that we have come to expect from Silverblade.  I expect this to easily hit $10 (it is only 15 cents away after all) and to be frank, I don't think this card will have any problem making it to $13-15 either.

Somberwald Sage $1.72 (+0.17)  Remember that thing I said about Complimentary Goods?  Now I understand why it is an Economic principle.  I think this will hit $2-3 again before it is done in standard.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $27.37 (+0.16):  She's up, she's down and I still don't know what to think about Tami.  I know she is good, so there is that, but I can't make a solid prediction based on her data.  Keep an eye on how her price is moving and make an assessment at your leisure.

Terminus $11.04 (+0.20):  Terminus was kind of just hanging out there for a while, and now it seems it is going to start heading back up.  This could have something to do with the popularity of BR aggro, maybe :D

Vexing Devil $6.83 (+0.11):  I am vexed by this little devil.  Okay, I know that was bad, but regardless, Vexing's price is all over the place.  Right now he is up and doesn't appear to be stopping.



TRENDING DOWN:

Bonfire of the Damned $28.40 (-0.78):  Don't let whatever happened in the middle of the week fool you, Bonfire is still falling.  There still isn't enough ramp in standard to support this card, and until another 1 cmc mana dude comes out, this card still won't see play.

Entreat the Angels $25.77 (-1.03):  It really does look like Sphinx's Revelation is taking the wind out of Entreat's sales (see what I did there?).  It would be wise (in my opinion) to go a head and get rid of this card if you are just in it to try and make money.  If you are trying to win games and such, continue combining Entreat and Sphinx's Revelation for maximum enjoyment.

Griselbrand $10.53 (-0.15):  I really wish this card wasn't banned in EDH.  That is all.

Temporal Mastery $10.11 (-0.17):  I really like this card, but it just isn't doing enough in Standard right now.  It does have some fun applications in Legacy but its lack of appeal in Standard is hurting its price.

Dark Ascension time is now!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Hellrider $8.44 (+1.76):  On a professional note, this card is probably going to hit $10-12.  On a personal note, I really hope it does, because I have a few of them that I will have no trouble parting with.  Grab these while they are hot, especially if you are planning to build BR aggro in the near future.

Huntmaster of the Fells $19.47 (+0.53):  Good Mythic is good?  Yes.  I have written about this card's applications in both Standard, Modern, and the future Standard (post Gatecrash), and if you haven't paid attention yet, I recommend you do so, because I don't see Huntmaster stopping.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $20.54 (+2.11):  I've heard planeswalkers are good.  Whether  it is junk tokens, or some Modern themed token deck, Sorin certainly is delivering.  A cautionary note however,  Sorin's price will top out as the Duel decks approach, and when it does, I highly recommend selling all of yours, and then just paying $20 to get them back (unless you are some kinda crazy art loving person, which is your business).

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $5.88 (+0.09):  I would feel bad not mentioning Thalia, and then having her price continue to go up, so Thalia, consider this your mention.

Vault of the Archangel $2.30 (+0.11):  Goodness, someone figured out that Deathtouch and Lifelink make creatures better!  Also Orzhov, but that isn't going to matter until later.

TRENDING DOWN:

Geralf's Messanger $9.90 (-0.26):  Despite the popularity of BR aggro and Geralf's Messanger's 4 of presence, his price is not currently reflecting his success.  I would like to his price bounce back, but until it does, there isn't much else I can say.

Gravecrawler $10.81 (-0.26):  See the previous entry, and replace Geralf's Messanger with Gravecrawler.

A short list, but a relevant one, and now onto Innistrad
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Cackling Counterpart $0.71 (+0.05):  Uhhhh, is this a thing?  If it is, I have no idea what it is.

Clifftop Retreat $10.09 (+0.16):  Not a lot going on here, but it is important to note that Clifftop Retreat is moving up and will continue to do so.  I don't foresee this trending back down in the near future.

Geist of Saint Traft $33.58 (+0.37):  Geist is still good.  Not much to say here.  I don't see his price going any where down any time soon.

Liliana of the Veil $25.15 (+0.16):  I know that sixteen cents isn't much but there isn't a whole lot of movement happening in Innistrad.  Three mana 'walkers are very good and Liliana's popularity hasn't seemed to fall to much yet.

Runechanter's Pike $1.72 (+0.08):  Probably nothing, but still notable.

Not much to see here either.

TRENDING DOWN:


The Innistrad Duals that Aren't Clifftop Retreat:  These are still slowly moving down, especially Sulfur Falls and Woodland Cemetery.  I wouldn't read too much into this, other than that Izzet isn't that popular, and Woodland Cemetery is still coming down from having an influx of copies enter the market.

This is it for Innistrad, not much happening this week, but then again, they all can't be huge.  Now the core set M13!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Dragonskull Summit $3.55 (+0.09):  Rakdos (read: BR aggro) is quite popular right now, and when you gotta have your mana fixing, you gotta have it.  There are a ton of these in circulation, so I don't see it going to much higher, but you never do know.

Garruk, Primal Hunter $10.13 (+0.93):  Finally some real growth,  I was starting to get sad after slogging through Innistrad.  Garruk is once again proving his playability in Standard.  When you have big creatures and want to draw cards he really is the only option.  Garruk will probably continue to trend up for a while so get him now if you need him.

Intrepid Hero $0.69 (+0.05):  I know that this amount of movement is negligible, buuuut Intrepid hero is an instant (usually) white way to deal with some of the bigger creatures in standard.  That is all.

Jace, Memory Adept $8.12 (+0.12):  Huh, I think this just proves that people really really do love their Mill.  Jace, Architect of Thought is a better card (in most ways) but at the same time, it is important to note that Jace 3.0 is trending up.

Sublime Archangel $27.26 (+0.34):  I think Sublime may have peaked.  If it continues to trend down, then I would suggest selling yours if you are looking to make a profit.  Although to be fair, I think this card is good enough to command a pretty high price, so don't look for it to fall to hard.

Sunpetal Grove $4.78 (+0.29):  Selesnya is quite popular right now, and when you gotta have your mana fixing, you gotta have it.  There are a ton of these in circulation, so I don't see it going to much higher, but you never do know.

Thundermaw Hellkite $23.64 (+3.16):  Typically when a deck begins to do well the Mythic Rares increase in price more than the other cards.  Since people are running (and winning with) BR aggro they are buying the cards for it and odds are most people don't have the Hellkites so they are in higher demand.  That higher demand is what is currently driving Thundermaw's price up.  Falkenrath Aristocrat's price, on the other hand, isn't increasing as much (I believe) because people who need them for BR aggro already have them from the decks previous incarnation that ran them.  I expect Thundermaw to hit $30 and when it does, I expect people who picked them up low to make some money.

TRENDING DOWN:

Ajani, Caller of the Pride $12.47 (-0.48):  I kind of want Ajani to drop really really low, so that when he does turn up and his price skyrockets (which is inevitable, hopefully) I can make some money on him.  then again, his price could never go up again.

Cathedral of War $2.53 (-0.09):  Still tapped, still trending down.

Liliana of the Dark Realms $10.47 (-0.22):  It comes as no surprise that Lili is moving down.  She just doesn't do enough to warrant being as expensive as she is.  I understand that other people may have different arguments for her, but in my opinion she gets out classed by the 3 drop version every time.

Talrand Sky Summoner $3.23 (-0.15):  Has anyone tried Talrand in Modern with all of the 0 cost spells there because that is the only way I see him seeing any play any time soon.

Thragtusk $23.38 (-0.57):  It had to happen eventually.  Rather than the normal, "I think Thragtusk has peaked and you should sell all of yours now" I am going to look at this a little differently.  Thragtusk has been an absolute all-star and his price dropping by no means reflects his playability or his power.  It very well may have been that he has peaked and you should sell all of yours now, but at the same time this is a card that you really have to watch before you make any sudden moves on it.  My advice (from a purely financial standpoint) is to hold onto them until they drop as low as say $22.50 then to get rid of them.  From a player's stand point if you have your playset, I wouldn't suggest getting rid of it for a while.

That is it!  Another week of City of Traders is in the . . . what?  Oh yeah, the Uncommons thing.  Look no further because Here You Go! 

29 Uncommons (and 4 close calls) worth $0.50 or more and their prices (mid) via tcgplayer.com:

Return to Ravnica
Azorius Charm $0.91
Call of the Conclave $0.51
Dreg Mangler $0.53
Dryad Militant $0.81
Golgari Charm $0.47 (close enough)
Guttersnipe $0.58
Izzet Charm $0.83
Judge's Familiar $0.76
Rakdos Cackler $0.79
Selesnya Charm $0.99
Slitherhead $0.46 (close enough)
Ultimate Price $0.47 (close enough)



Avacyn Restored
Blood Artist $2.11
Thunderous Wrath $0.71


Dark Ascension
Diregraf Captain $0.56
Drogskol Captain $0.60
Lingering Souls $2.09
Strangleroot Geist $0.93
Stromkirk Captain $0.63


Innistrad
Diregraf Ghoul $0.51
Dissipate $0.77
Intangible Virtue $1.37
Invisible Stalker $0.95
Midnight Haunting $0.46 (close enough)

M13
Augur of Bolas $0.75
Fog Bank $0.89
Jace's Phantasm $0.89
Knight of Glory $1.46
Oblivion Ring $0.56
Rancor $2.90
Reliquary Tower $0.76
Tormod's Crypt $0.57
Vampire Nighthawk $0.84

Wow!  Look at all of that money that you probably had lying around in your Uncommon box, that you leave sitting at home every time you go out trading.  Most of these cards are worth more than a lot of the Rares in standard.  My suggestion?  Stick some of these cards in the back of your trade binder and bring them with you so that you literally have more to bring to the trade table.

That's it for this weeks entry of City of Traders.  Have a great week and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!

Kyle

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Mythic Proportions - 11/19/2012

Good evening and welcome back to City of Traders!


I hope that you have had a good week and that you bought 20 copies of Craterhoof Behemoth before it skyrocketed, but more on that later.

As always, I am going to look at how the Rares and Mythic Rares currently in Standard are trending and, at the end of the article, I will offer some advice about investing in sealed MTG product.

And now, and as always, two things before we get to the good stuff:

First a disclaimer: Please take my advice at your own risk!  I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.

Second some directions:  In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it.  This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.

Let's get started with Return to Ravnica!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Ash Zealot $3.24 (+0.13):  Not a ton of gain, but still a good card that has its applications in Standard (RDW, BR Aggro) and in Modern (Aggro).  With Snapcaster's multi-format stardom it is no surprise that his direct foil is gaining in both popularity and in price.

Deathrite Shaman $9.14 (+0.30):  Deathrite was up to $9 for a little while following Yuuya Watanabe's 2nd place finish in Pro Tour Return to Ravnica, but  then it fell for a little while.  It seems to be headed back up, and if it follows in Craterhoof Behemoth's giant footsteps, then it will go up as well, all thanks to Martin Jùza.

Sphinx's Revelation $13.36 (+3.64):  Still kicking myself for missing this two weeks ago, but it goes to show that you should never underestimate a powerful Mythic Rare.  This might be the next Entreat the Angels (which isn't going anywhere either), as you get to cast it at any time for its miracle cost (which happens to be its regular cost).  I'm not sure where this card is going to end up, but I don't foresee it slowing down anytime soon.

That is it for the card that are on the rise, now lets see what is moving down:

TRENDING DOWN¡

Abrupt Decay $7.16 (-1.12):  While Abrupt is still falling, it is starting to show signs of slowing down.  I am not sure if this means that we are going to see it level off and stay there, or level off and start going back up.  Although it hasn't seen a ton of play in Standard, this is a fine card for Modern as it gets past the myriad of counters within that format.

Armada Wurm $12.45 (-1.85):  I like this card, but as I remarked last week, its lack of immediate game furthering impact hurts it just a small amount.  Granted not every deck is going to be able to answer such a large threat, but the ones that are are keeping Armada Wurm on the down trend.  No matter where this card's price ends it 10 power and toughness is nothing to sneeze at.  Keep an eye on the Wurm.

The Shocklands:  All of these are trending down not because they are bad, but because they are plentiful.  Not only do people have them from Return to Ravnica, they have copies from Ravnica: City of Guilds.  I will say this about the shocks though, remember when people needed the Scars lands when Innistrad came out and their prices blew up?  Yeah, just something to keep in mind :D

Chromatic Lantern $2.69 (-0.28):  When 5 Color Control becomes a thing in the future (a guy can dream, right?) then it will need this, and when it does its price will go back up.  Watch for this card to drop to its lowest price, then pick them up because worst case scenario, you can always trade them off to future EDH players.

Cyclonic Rift $2.73 (-0.22): This just isn't the kind of finisher decks are looking for right now in standard.  I do love this cards EDH applications, but don't see it price going up any time soon.

Desecration Demon $2.19 (-0.15):  I wonder how long it will take this to get to $1.00, any thoughts?

Detention Sphere $5.51 (-0.37):  I got some great feedback regarding this card and my ramblings about it last week (thanks Dustin) and would like to point out that even though its prices is still trending down, the decks that can support both the blue and white in the mana cost are getting a huge upside over Oblivion Ring.  That having been said, this card is still trending down and I am curious to see how low it will go.  Once it hits bottom, it will come back up because it is a good card so get these as they get cheaper.

Dreadbore $5.72 (-0.28):  Dreadbore is still moving down, but  if there are any new planeswalkers and creatures in Gatecrash (there will be) then this card may still play a part in standard yet.  Similar to D-Sphere, when this card hits it bottom, pick it up, because it is good enough to impact standard yet.

The Guildleaders $$$ --> $$:  Still trending down.  They have fun EDH applications, but they aren't (with the exception of Trostani and occasionally Niv) seeing any play right now in Standard.  I think their lack of awesomeness the turn you play them may be what is hurting them in Standard since they all require additional mana/cards or the ability to swing to become relevant.

Jace, Architect of Thought $34.61 (-3.66):  If you are in this purely to make money sell Jace now, because I don't think his price is ever going to get as high as it was ($50.43).  If you are in this to play your best game of Magic, hold onto Jace, because we have no idea what Dimir and Simic will bring to the table.  Oh and because Jace is awesome.

Lotleth Troll $5.59 (-0.97):  Still not seeing any price spikes the troll continues to fall.  Golgari might get some goodies from Gatecrash, but until then, I don't see the zombie's price rising any.

Mizzium Mortars $3.55 (-0.30):  As a targeted creature killer this card is sweet, although its inability to go to the face in a pinch hurts it a little.  As a red board wipe, this card sacrifices a cheaper mana cost for an opponents only one-sided effect.  Personally I would rather have a red option with a cheaper mana cost in standard.

Necropolis Regent $2.22 (-0.09):  This Mythic has "win more" written all over it and despite making a sweet pair with Corpsejack Menace continues to fall.

Nivmagus Elemental $1.47 (-0.18):  I want to see this guy in an infinite combo.  Someone should make that happen.  Until it does, this guy will end up in the bulk bin.

Precinct Captain $1.41 (-0.09):  I think there was some weird price thing a week ago that had this at 1.59, so I based the loss on the prior day.  The real reason I wanted to talk about this card is because I failed to mention it in my list of 25 cards that could make an impact after Gatecrash.  Boros will be a thing and it will need 2 drops, and whether the Boros player's 2 drop of choice is this or Ash Zealot, one would do well to keep an eye on this card.

Rakdos's Return $9.15 (-0.17):  This is a strong finisher in the right deck and if Sphinx's Revelation is any indicator this card has potential to blow up suddenly.  Even though it is trending down, keep an eye on the Return.

Supreme Verdict $4.58 (-0.33):  This is possibly the most powerful 4 mana wrath wizards has printed, since it is uncounterable, but until the right deck picks it up, its price will continue to fall.

Vraska the Unseen $13.43 (-1.15):  Oh Vraska is still trending down this week?  Huh, fancy that.  I'm still waiting for her price to bottom out so I can pick her up for EDH, I'm thinking $4 - $5 but that could be low.

Onward to Avacyn Restored:
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date*
*Revenge of the Hunted is mispriced and is not (sadly) $11.00 as of 11/19/2012*

TRENDING UP!

Craterhoof Behemoth $16.00 (+12.39):  BOOOOM!!!  This guy.  Have you met Standards newest all-star Mythic?  Leave it to Martin Juza, the person who pioneered "Wolf Run Ramp", to take another sweet mythic and make it the linchpin of the entire deck.  This card's price has skyrocketed since Juza piloted his aptly named "Hoof there it is" deck to a 1st place Grand Prix finish and Uhhhhh, since I gathered today's prices this card has already went up $0.95 from the screen shot.  I have no idea where this will end up, but if Standards other sweet reanimation target is any indicator, then the Behemoth is set to keep climbing.  Get them while they are hot!

An aside and some forethought.  If more people are running/going to be running reanimator, then it would stand to reason that those who are not will begin thinking of ways to counteract its game plan, ie. mess with the graveyard.  Cards like Ground Seal, Rest in Peace, Grafdigger's Cage, and Tormod's Crypt will be featured in sideboards, and could potentially increase in price.  Keep this in mind going into the future. 

Restoration Angel $13.42 (+1.05):  Even though Craterhoof is a hard act to follow, Restoration Angel is still showing a solid upward trend.  Given Standard's ability to easily make a card's price (even some rares) $20+ this card may still have some room to grow.

Sigarda, Host of Herons $11.50 (+0.20):  Not a huge gain this week, but it is important to note that Sigarda is up quite a bit from when I started collecting this data ($8.27 on 10/06) which gives us a +$3.23 gain.  Sigarda's unsacability makes her an attractive threat and her price could still continue to increase.

Silverblade Paladin $8.49 (+0.75):  Still some growth here.  Silverblade paladin may have slipped a few cents from yesterday to today, but I still have faith that between his current appeal and his post Gatecrash playability he will continue to trend up.

Somberwald Sage $1.55 (+0.32):  Meet Craterhoof Behemoth's complimentary good.  Complimentary goods are things like katchup and mustard or peanut butter and jelly.  When you purchase one good, then you must also buy the other.  If you are running Craterhoof Behemoth a la Juza, then you need Somberwald Sage as well.  I don't think this card is going to have nearly as much of a price jump as the Mythic, but it will still see some mild increase.

TRENDING DOWN¡

Bonfire of the Damned $29.18 (-1.93): Still falling, now under $30.  At this rate it will be under $20 just in time for Christmas!

Cavern of Souls $19.69 (-0.38):  Technically down, but this card is positioned to go up.  If people are running more counterspells to stop crazy bombs it stands to reason that the wise player will begin running ways to counteract those counters.  Even if it is stricken to the sideboard, a $20+ dollar card is still a $20+ dollar card.

Entreat the Angels $26.80 (1.26):  I'm sad that Entreat is down, but  the prices don't lie.  This card does have miraculous impacts in formats other than standard, so it probably won't fall too hard, but if it does and you are looking to make some money, I would suggest getting rid of yours if they continue to trend down.

Griselbrand $10.68 (-0.27):  My condolences to everyone's favorite reanimation target/breakfast cereal spokesman but Standard has a new kid on the block, one that wins the turn he comes down, rather than doing something sweet and then usually cinching the game the next turn.  I don't think Griselbrand is going to drop too much, but I believe it will continue to fall.  (It is important to note that in Legacy players Sneak Attack or Omniscience Griselbrand, not Craterhoof, so that could have an impact on his price.

Vexing Devil $6.72 (-0.20):  Only down a bit, but down none the less.  I think Vexing's problem is (and I know I am not the first to comment on this) that he isn't what you need when you need it because of your opponent's option to choose.  Additionally his printing in the Event Deck pumped even more copies into the market.  I say bail on these if you can.

And now we have Dark Ascension:
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Hellrider $6.68 (+1.22):  I don't know what to say about Hellrider that I haven't said before.  He is still going up, which is sweet and he is still burning faces, which is also sweet.  If you team needs more burn, there is no better 4 drop in standard.  A $1+ price increase in a week is nothing to sneeze at and if this trend continues Hellrider could possibly hit $10.

Huntmaster of the Fells $18.94 (+0.33):  Since there isn't much to talk about in the world of Dark Ascension, it doesn't hurt to mention when one of the sweetest Mythics in standard has some upward movement.  I see this card over $20 and maybe even as high as $25+ when Gruul is out.  Still a strong pick up as long as it will be in standard.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $18.43 (+0.45):  Here is my advice with Sorin, wait until his price peaks, then sell/trade all of yours as quickly as possible, because when his prices peaks it will be because the Duel Deck will be coming out and just like Koth and Venser his price will continue to fall.

TRENDING DOWN¡

Falkenrath Aristocrat $18.90 (-0.32):  Even though Jon Bolding's Grand Prix winning 1st place BR aggro deck featured the full 4 of this card, Juza's Behemoth build is stealing all of the spotlight.    I think the reason there wasn't a giant price jump here is because A) people already knew it was good, and B) because there was not much more room for this card's price to go.  I would  keep a close eye on what Falkenrath does and then evaluate whether or not you want to unload on yours if they start to trend down.

Geralf's Messenger $10.16 (-0.52):  Even though he didn't have a whopping showing in the top 8 of both GPs (16 total mainboard copies between both events' top 8s) Geralf's Messenger is still a fine card, I just think (based on the data) his price is going to continue to fall.

Gravecrawler $11.07 (-0.29):  Despite a week long trend down, Gravecrawler has turned up for the past two days.  I attribute this to his overall playability both in Standard and along side Carrion Feeder in Legacy.  Given that, I don't see his price falling too much, but at the same time, it is important to note Zombie's popularity has still dropped.

That is it for DKA now lets visit the INN!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Clifftop Retreat $9.93 (+0.59):  Not sure if Standard play is behind this or if people are planning for the future, but either way, Clifftop appears to be trending up.  I was hoping that its price would drop lower and make it an cheaper pick up before Gatecrash comes out, but this may be what we have to work with.

Geist of Saint Traft $33.21 (+1.71):  Although the past two days Geist has slipped back down, he was showing strong growth.  I am not sure if we have seen a peak yet, but it is important to note that Geist is the second most expensive Mythic in Standard second only to Jace (which it may soon surpass).  I think Geist is done climbing for now, but at the same time he is still one to watch.

Past in Flames $1.83 (+0.05):  Yeah, Yeah, five cents big whoop, buuuut, I like this card.  I am not sure what part it will (if ever) play in constructed Magic but if it ever does, then having 4 to 8 of these in your collection may not be a bad thing and getting in at < $2 doesn't seem like a bad deal.

Sever the Bloodline $2.51 (+0.29):  I think Sever may finally be done climbing, for now, but to be fair $2.50 is a respectable price point.  Some things may change in the future so this is still a card to keep an eye on.

TRENDING DOWN¡

Garruk Relentless $14.10 (-0.26):  Just because he is trending down, doesn't mean Garruk isn't irrelevant in Standard.  Will all of the 1/1s that are going to be running around trying to Reanimate a Craterhoof Behemoth Garruk is going to have plenty of creature to fight.  His price may still rise again.

Liliana of the Veil $24.99 (-0.92):  Some small movement down, but Lili still holds a special place in my heart.  I like all of the fun stuff she does, and if it weren't for Loxodon Smiter, then I think she would have a stronger hold on Standard.  Luckily she is still running amok in Modern.  I don't think her prices is going to slip too terribly much, so I wouldn't bail on yours just yet.

Olivia Voldaren $18.44 (-0.41):  Olivia may have peaked for now, but she is a lose cannon as far as price is concerned.  I don't think she is going to go down much.  Keep an eye on her.

Sulfur Falls and Woodland Cemetery $9.72, $12.28 (-0.27) (-0.67):  Izzet isn't doing much, and Woodland came in the same Event Deck as Thragtusk.  I think both of these will continue to fall.

That wraps up the Expansions, now lets look at the Core Set, M13!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Garruk Primal Hunter $9.20 (+2.04):  Garruk was a very expensive planeswalker during his earlier time in Standard, and we may be seeing that Garruk coming back.  Offering card draw in a color with very little card draw, this is one of my favorite walkers in Standard.

Sublime Angel $26.92 (+1.79):  It should come as no surprise that this card is increasing in price.  It has applications in quite a few decks and is going to continue to make waves.  It is very possible that this card will reach $30+ soon.  If you want/need these, get them now.  If you are looking to cash in on yours, wait until they peak and then sell them for what is hopefully a sweet profit.

Sunpetal Grove $4.49 (+0.27):  This is the most popular of the M13 duals for good reason, it is wildly playable, it provides the right colors of mana to play some of the strongest cards in standard, and it is a rare land which have, traditionally, done well in Standard.

Thragtusk $23.95 (+0.93):  I think I am correct in saying that Thraggy has officially surpassed (this week) Snapcaster Mage as the most expensive Rare card in Standard.  No shock there.  That is all.

Thundermaw Hellkite $20.48 (+2.13):  It really has been a good week for Mythic Rares (sorry Archangel's Light, better luck next week).  This card will have no trouble hastily flying back up to $25+ within the next month.  It is the best thing you can be playing on turn 5 in a red deck and its prices if finally reflecting that.

TRENDING DOWN¡

A list, because it is late, and I have to be up in 6 hours XD

Akroma's Memorial, Cathedral of War, Disciple of Bolas, Krenko, Liliana of the Dark Realms, Mutilate, Nicol Bolas, Omniscience, Talrand, Vampire Nocturnus, Yeva.

Nothing new here, just the usual offenders.  And with that we have wrapped up the price trends for another week.  Now, if you will indulge me, I would like to talk briefly about MTG sealed product from a financial stand point.

If you have ever bought a box of Magic the Gathering cards, then you know you will probably spend anywhere from $90 to $120 depending on your store's price and how much tax the state you live in charges.  The thing to keep in mind with sealed boxes of cards is that the prices that I mentioned before usually apply  during a set's tenure in Standard.  What I would like to talk about today is buying sealed boxes as an investment and potentially making money in the future.

If you look at the prices of sealed product from the past they look a little something like this (all prices per tcgplayer.com):
New Phyrexia - As low as 129.95 + shipping
Mirrodin Besieged - As low as 107.95 + shipping
Scars of Mirrodin - As low as 92.95 + shipping

Rise of the Eldrazi - As low as 199.95 + shipping
Worldwake - As low as 325.00 + shipping
Zendikar - As low as 159.99 + shipping

Alara Reborn - As low as 164.95 + shipping
Conflux -Sold out
Shards of Alara - 169.95

Eventide - Sold out
Morningtide - As low as 258.42 + shipping
Shadowmoor - As low as 249.95 + shipping
Lorwyn - As low as 349.95 + shipping

There are several points that I would like to make here:
1. For the most part, sealed boxes of Magic appreciate in value over time.
2. If you are worried about there being a market for your sealed product, don't be.  People will eventually buy these cards and you can always lower the price as long as you get back more than you spent on the initial investment, and all of these boxes are worth more than they were when they were on sale during their respective standard seasons.
3. If a set has multi-format staples in it (mana fixing land, great planeswalkers, lots of widely playable cards) then its price is more likely to be higher.

I understand that many of us are not in a position to buy bulk sealed product, but if you can, do it, hold onto it for a couple of years, and you should have no problem recouping your investment, and making a sweet profit for your trouble.

That brings us to the end of our journey for this week and I hope you have enjoyed City of Traders!  It is Thanksgiving here Thursday so Happy Thanksgiving!  I hope you take some time this week to remember what you are thankful for and to give thanks for all of the good things in your life.  Have a great night and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!

Kyle

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Reward the Faithful - 11/12/2012

Goooooooood Evening Everyone!  Welcome back to City of Traders! 

I hope you are doing well and that you are here to get some information about what is going on in the world that we call Standard.  Tonight, as always, I am going to look at the current price trends, as well as provide a list of cards that I think are going to be potential players when Gatecrash comes out (get ready for some guild influenced decision making) that you may want to take a second look at before the official spoiler season starts (it never hurts to start thinking about these things early).

Before we can get to all of my incredibly insightful (read: highly speculative) writing please take some time to read my ever present disclaimer:

 First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk!  I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.

Second some directions:  In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it.  This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.


Great now that that has been copied and pasted, errr, I mean thoughtfully and painstakingly rewritten we can get to the good stuff, and by that I mean Return to Ravnica:
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date


TRENDING UP:

Ash Zealot $3.11 (+0.18):  Still climbing slowly, the flashback hating, zombie bashing, card with all of the haste is still making its presence known.  With the way Hellrider is moving, I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a 4 or 5 dollar card in the future, especially if (when) Boros humans becomes a thing when Gatecrash comes out.

Deathrite Shaman $8.84 (+0.11): Remember that Modern tournament where somethings happened and stuff occured?  Yeah, well apparently there was a brief lull where people forgot Deathrite Shaman was awesome.  Having taken a peak at the results of Grand Prix Chicago people have suddenly remembered how sweet this card actually is.  12 copies in the the Top 8, with each deck running the full 4, oh and did I mention Jacob Wilson won with his list, which happened to include 4.  Look for Deathrite to be a player for a while.

Sphinx's Revelation $9.72 (+3.32):  I know when to admit that I have made a mistake, and ladies and gentlemen, I have made a mistake.  I did not make any comments on this card last week because it was only slightly kinda maybe going up in price and I just wrote it off as weird date variance, rather than actual movement.  For that, I apologize.  The Revelation hasn't showed signs of slowing and I would recommend holding on to yours until they peak.  Otherwise, if you need them, get them before they get out of control a la Entreat the Angles.

That is it for the ups, now let us look at the downs,

TRENDING DOWN:

Abrupt Decay  $8.28 (-0.63):  I believe Abrupt Decay wins the award for most days without actually showing any increase in price.  It literally has not increased in price at all since I have started doing my data collection on October 6th.  How low will it go?  Probably very.  If you can find someone to take these off of your hands, make it a point to do so.

Armada Wurm $14.30 (-1.16):  As much as I like this card, Selesnya is winning with Thragtusks and Restoration Angels, and while a 6 cmc card that puts 10 power and toughness onto the board is Awesome, the lack of immediate impact to the game that this card makes the turn it is played, slightly hurts its awesomeness with all of the Termini (that is multiple terminus) running around.

Blood Crypt and the rest of the "shocks" (except Temple Garden, kinda) $13.09 (-0.23):  These are still excellent cards to have playsets of, but right now they are not wildly swinging up or down in price.  Overgrown Tomb, was inflated at $18+ for a while, but has since realized that it isn't any better than the others and has come back to a "normal" price point.  I will say that if you can easily get these in trades that they are a nice commodity to have in your binder, as people are almost always looking for them.

Chromatic Lantern $2.97 (-0.18):  Solid EDH card (for 5 color brews), however looking at Coalition Relic ($3.77) I do not see the Lantern going sky high any time soon.

Desecration Demon $2.34 (-0.17):  You know all of those demons that are bulk rares that you have sitting around in boxes?  Of course you don't, because they are bulk rares and you have them sitting around in boxes.  Desecration will end up there in due time.  Abyssal Persecutor he is not.

Detention Sphere $5.88 (-0.23):  O-Ring is so functionally similar that only decks that are already playing Blue are going to go out of their way for a card like this.  This will continue to go down.

Dreadbore $6.00 (-0.20):  I like this card as an instant and at common (terminate) and don't see this as an expensive rare for long.  I predict that Dreadbore will continue to fall similar to what Detention Sphere is doing.

The Guild Leaders $XX ----> $X:  All still steadily falling.  I just wish Rakdos and Trostani, and Niv would hurry up and get with the program and end up as a <$5 card, so I can go ahead and pick them up for EDH. :D

Jace, Architect of Thought $38.27 (-2.26):  You know, I must say that I am pretty proud of myself on this one.  In my very first post, I said that Jace had peaked and was going to continue to fall.  So far, I have been dead on the money.  Jace is sweet, don't get me wrong, but he hasn't increased in price at all and his decline doesn't show any sign of stopping.

Lotleth Troll: $6.56 (-0.64):  This will keep dropping.  And you should feel like you have been trolled if you bought these when they were stupid expensive.

Nivmagus Elemental $1.65 (-0.21):  Not sure why this guy was ever expensive, but he is definitely a big pile o' bulk.

Rest in Peace $1.55 (0.07):  Here lies Rest in Peace...

Supreme Verdict $4.91 (-0.34):  As long as Terminus is in standard, this cards price is not going to go up.

Vraska the Unseen $14.58 (-0.95):  If you can trade these off, do it.  If you can't, trade them off at $13 or something, because in two weeks, that is what this card's price is going to be.

Now we are going to look at Avacyn Restored:
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP:

Craterhoof Behemoth $3.61 (+0.35):  Sooooo Reanimator.  Haste, check.  Trample, Check. Attack granting MYTHIC ability, check.  Yep, this dude wins games the turn you play him, which is exactly what Reanimator is looking to do.  Pick 'em up now if you need 'em.

Restoration Angel $12.37 (+0.78):  I would have love to have told you about this card last week, but there simply wasn't the data to support pointing it out.  That having been said, one of the important things to take into consideration with this card isn't so much its current (and relevant) impact on Standard but also its past, and more importantly future relevance.  Restoration Angel is going to have something to blink in Gatecrash and Dragon's Maze, I know that much, and getting these right now might be a good idea, before they (potentially) go the way of Thragtusk and hit $20+.

Silverblade Paladin $7.74 (+0.22):  Well, that was anticlimactic.  Silverblade was projected to keep on keeping on, but instead he slowed down quite a bit and hasn't increased much in the last week.  I would still keep an eye on him though.

TRENDING DOWN:

Bonfire of the Damned $31.11 (-0.35):  Still trending down, if you haven't heeded my advise yet and are still waiting for this card to shoot back up to $45 then you are a silly person.

Cavern of Souls $20.07 (-0.23):  Are people playing this yet?  I'm not sure, but its price does not seem to be reflecting it if they are.  Once people start trying to counter certain Green creatures in standard who are basically 3 cards stapled together *cough* Worldspine Wurm *cough* this card will start seeing play again.

Entreat the Angels $28.06 (-0.12):  It's up, it's down,  it's cast for this, it's cast for that.  I don't know where this card is headed, and I really don't even want to deal with its Miraculous shenanigans this week.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $27.33 (+0.05):  I know that this is technically a gain in price, but the last three days, have shown a downward trend.  I think Tamiyo is just settling around $27.  Similar to Entreat, I don't definitely know where this one is headed.

Next!  Dark Ascension!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP:

Hellrider $5.46 (+0.55):  Still moving up.  Still burning faces.  I hope you picked these up when they were less than $2 and are now laughing at all of the sweet trades I am imagining that you are making.

Huntmaster of the Fells $18.61 (+0.18):  So here is the thing.  This guy is aggressive and robust and can do quite a few things in the right situation.  This is one of that cards that I would like to (and will) highlight because I predict that he will be a player when Gatecrash comes out.  Gruul will be aggressive and odds are this is going to be the 4 drop that they will end up wanting.

Increasing Confusion $1.65 (+0.08):  Uhhh, I'm confused, but whatever, Mill is an oddly popular theme among the casual crowd and this is probably the sweetest mill card in standard (Sorry Jace).

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $17.98 (+0.34):  This guy is good, and seems to be continuing to head up.  Seems legit.

TRENDING DOWN:

Falkenrath Aristocrat $19.22 (-0.15):  Not a whole lot to say here, as this card is still competing with Oliva in control builds, and Hellrider in hyper aggressive builds.  The lack of a winning Killing Wave / Blood Artist strategy is impacting both its playability and its price.

Geralf's Messenger $10.68 (-0.12):  Zombies is losing . . . . . popularity and so is the Messenger.

Gravecrawler $11.36 (-0.18):  Please see above ^

Done with the DA now on to the INN:
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP:

Clifftop Retreat $9.34 (+0.50):  This could be going up for a number of reasons.  I like to think that it is going up because I said that it is going to do something in Gatecrash.  Just something to consider.

Garruk Relentless $14.36 (+0.10):  Garruk was going up all week, except for today.  This could be one of two things: either he has peaked and is going to continue to go down, or just a weird price thing and that he will continue to go up.  Either way, I just wanted to point it out.

Geist of Saint Traft $31.50 (+0.74):  Not sure why this is $30 . . . is he good or something?  All kidding aside, Geist is trending up and you should be watching his price especially if you are looking to get rid of yours when they peak (and they eventually will).

Olivia Voldaren $18.85 (+0.19):  If this card ever creeps down to $7 again, I am going to buy all of them.  The fact that she is still managing to increase in price is quite impressive.

Parallel Lives $3.69 (+0.10):  Still on its quest up, Parallel Lives may have slowed down, but it hasn't showed signs of stopping.  I still stand by my claim that when people are no longer playing with Innistrad cards in standard, this card will be a sweet one for EDH.

Past in Flames $1.78 (+0.06):  Did I miss something?  Is there a Modern storm deck that I overlooked?  While 6 cents isn't much, this card is up 26 cents since 10/30.  I am not saying you should buy this, unless maybe there is some crazy Epic Experiment deck that is winning with this right now.

Sever the Bloodline $2.22 (+0.26):  Not sure what else I can say about this that I haven't already.  It is going to keep going up.

TRENDING DOWN:

Nothing to see here folks, save for Sulfur Falls (no surprise here Izzet isn't doing squat in Standard) and Woodland Cemetery (once again no surprise as everyone has extras from all of the Event Decks they've been opening/buying for the other rares (read: sweet, sweet Deadbridge Goliaths)).

M13!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Dragonskull Summit $3.50 (+0.07):  Not a big gain for the week, but if you look back at 10/6 this card's prices has increased 59 cents.  Something to certainly note going into the future.

Garruk, Primal Hunter $7.16 (+0.43):  Garruk had a stumble today since he didn't increase in price, but he was trending up solidly and is still one to keep an eye on.

Sublime Angel $25.13 (+1.89):  Yep, that is a solid Mythic.  I am not sure where this card is going to settle, but it hasn't slowed down all week.  If you think this is going to be a $30+ card then you may want to get in now.  As for me $25 is a lot to spend on a speculation for one card, so I think I am going to pass.

Sunpetal Grove $4.22 (+0.11):  Sunpetal's story is similar to D Skull's.  If you look at the week's gain of $0.11, it isn't much but if you look all the way back to 10/6 this card is up $1.41.  Just something to note.

Thragtusk $23.02 (+0.71):  Words cannot describe how solid this guy's price is.  Thraggy isn't going to quit, period.  I will not be surprised when, not if mind you, but when his price hits $25.  Oh by the way, if your LGS still has any Golgari Event decks in stock and is actually selling them at MSRP, you should go a head and buy them.

Thundermaw Hellkite $18.35 (+0.74):  He is a beater, and I foresee him hitting $20 easily.  As far as this card's potential in the future, keep in mind that Gruul is going to be a thing.

TRENDING DOWN:

A list again, because I am lazy and M13 card haven't quit slipping: Ajani, Caller of the Pride; Cathedral of War; Jace, Memory Adept; Krenko, Mob Boss; Liliana of the Dark Realms; Odric, Master Tactician; Omniscience; Talrand, Sky Summoner; Trading Post; Yeva, Natures Herald.

And now, a sweet and concise list of 25 Rares and Mythic rares that I think are going to make an impact in Standard after Gatecrash comes out.  Keep in mind that this is a speculative as speculation gets, since I am not going off of any price trends.  Some of these are probably common sense, and some of them are probably waaaay out there.  Also I didn't include some cards (Thragtusk, Various Planeswalkers, the current shocklands, etc. because I know they are going to be regardless of what comes out of Gatecrash.  That having been said, here we go:

1. Ajani, Caller of the Pride: I swear this guy is going to be making something sweet into a double striking monster.
2. Ash Zealot: With Boros coming out, this could definitely be a card that could make an impact in a WR humans build.
3. Blasphemous Act: I'm actually surprised no one is running this now in a BRx control deck.  But if Red does become a more controlling color in the future, I could see this being one of its boardwipes of choice.
 4. Bonfire of the Damned:  As much as I rag on this card, with the right amount of mana dorks in standard at any given time, this card could see an spike in popularity again.
5. Champion of the Parish:  Humans is a sweet tribe right now, and Boros will make WR an even sweeter option.  That having been said, there is no better 1 drop for that color combination.
6. Chromatic Lantern:  Once all of the shocklands come out this will probably be irrelevant, however, it could be that a 5 Color Control list uses this to Ramp and fix.
7. Clifftop Retreat:  Pick these up before they skyrocket when Gatecrash spoilers start up.  That is all.
8. Deadeye Navigator:  Simic may just give us something to do with this, just a thought.
9. Drowned Catacombs:  Dimir will want additional mana fixing even though it will get a shock.
10. Evil Twin:  Not sure if this will ever become playable, but there is something I like about this card.
11. Havengul Lich:  Dimir + Heartless Summoning + Havengul Lich = a thing maybe.  I dunno.
12. Heartless Summoning:  Nothing fun to pair it with right now, but who knows with Orzhov and Dimir.
13. Hinterland Harbor:  Simic will want additional mana fixing even though it will get a shock too.
14. Huntmaster of the Fells:  As I said before, this guy is sweet and aggressive and that is right up Gruul's alley.  Also I think (don't quote me) Dark Ascension will be out of print when Gatecrash comes out and Huntmaster may be the linchpin of an awesome future Gruul list.
15. Isolated Chapel:  Orzhov will want additional mana fixing even though it will get a shock as well.
16. Kessig Wolf Run:  Gruul and such.
17. Mutilate:  There are going to b 4 different Swamp shock lands in standard at one time which means a deck can run 5 colors and still have every land in the deck be a swamp.  That is probably unrealistic and bad, but Mutilate could still see some play yet.
18. Nephalia Drownyard:  If UB control becomes a thing it may need a wincon and this could be it.
19. Quirion Druid: The best mana fixing we have seen in a while may make this card playable.
20. Rootbound Crag:  Gruul will want additional mana fixing even though it will get a shock also.
21. Slayer's Stronghold:  Boros + this = sweet hasty dudes.
22. Sorin, Lord of Innistrad:  Orzhov could give Sorin the tools he needs to be AWESOME in Standard.
23. Steam Vents: Not Gatecrash, but if the new planeswalker in Dragon's Maze is good, so then will this be.
24. Sulfur Falls: See the above comment.
25. Vault of the Archangel:  If Orzhov is sending guys into the red zone, then this is a card that will matter.

All right, that just about does it!  This has been a really fun article to write and I have really enjoyed looking at the cards that I think could change in the future when Gatecrash comes out.  If you enjoyed this post, please share it with your friends and spread the joy!  As always, if you have any questions, comments, or snide remarks, please share them with me.  I hope you have enjoyed this week's City of Traders and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!

Kyle

Monday, November 5, 2012

Restore Balance - 11/05/2012

Good evening everyone, and Happy Guy Fawks Day!  Welcome back to City of Traders!

I'm going to make this a quick one tonight, but fear not because I plan on covering everything that you need to know regarding the new price trends that have unfolded this week.

I would like to point out that due to content size and to the fact that I would like to present the data in the best way possible, I am going to only present the most recent two weeks of price data.  This should make it easier to see what has changed recently.  If you would like a copy of the data going back to the 6th of October, then feel free to message me with a request and I will send it to you.

Now, and always, two things before we get started:

First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk!  I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.

Second some directions:  In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it.  This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.

With that out of the way, here come the numbers!

Return to Ravnica:
All prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given day.
TRENDING UP:

Not too much to see here folks.

Ash Zealot $2.96 (+0.07):  We are seeing some small movement in Red's best two drop.  One important thing to consider here with such a small change is that the average price could be creeping up because people are buying out the lower cost copies of this card, thus slightly increasing the average price, which happens to be what we are looking at here.  Buuut, I still like this card and it doesn't hurt to note growth where it exists.

I believe that the lack of upward movement from the vast majority of Return to Ravnica's Rares are slowly but surely settling into their (more or less) permanent regular standard price range.

Before I move to the cards that are trending down, I would like to talk about Return to Ravnica in the terms of the Product life-cycle (PLC).  I think for the most part we are in the Maturity Stage of the PLC, but more on that in a bit.

In our case Return to Ravnica is the product and its "time spent in standard" is its life cycle.  First comes the the Market Introduction Stage, where the product is first released and insanely hyped, thus prices are high, and depending on usefulness and playability are likely to climb.  Second we have the Growth Stage.  This is what we experienced when prices were fluctuating wildly and for the most part bounding upward from day to day.  Right now, we are starting to move into the Maturity Stage of the PLC where sale prices peak and begin to level out.  Since the product has become wildly available and there are plenty of cards in the market prices will begin to stop climbing, level out, and slowly, but eventually fall.  I will talk about the 4th stage of the PLC Saturation and Decline in a later article when it actually begins to happen (usually closer to a sets rotation from standard date).

TRENDING DOWN:


A list, because I am short on time tonight:
Abrupt Decay $9.11 (-1.17)

Armada Wurm $15.89 (-1.30)

Chromatic Lantern $3.23 (-0.46)

Cyclonic Rift $3.26 (-0.18)

Deathrite Shaman $8.79 (-0.21)

Detention Sphere $6.21 (-0.32)

Dreadbore $6.36 (-0.60)

Epic Experiment $3.65 (-0.24)

Hallowed Fountain $14.93 (-0.72)

Isperia, Supreme Judge $2.33 (-0.23)

Jace, Arcitect of Thought $41.29 (-3.67)

Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord $3.25 (-0.19)

Lotleth Troll $7.54 (-1.42)

Loxodon Smiter $3.92 (-0.31)

Mizzium Mortars $4.15 (-0.33)

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius $6.81 ( -0.57)

Overgrown Tomb $15.77 (-0.72)

Rakdos's Return $9.35 (-0.41)

Rakdos, Lord of Riots $6.03 (-0.62)

Rest in Peace $1.67 (-0.18)

Steam Vents 11.28 (-0.75)

Supreme Verdict $5.35 (-0.53)

Trostani, Selesnya's Voice $12.14 (-1.49)

Vraska the Unseen $15.90 (-1.50)

And now I am going to talk about Avacyn Restored (briefly):
All prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given day
TRENDING UP:

Craterhoof Behemoth $3.18 (+0.14):  Reanimator likes its 7 and 8 drops and a giant fatty is a giant fatty.  Probably just a flash in the pan, but something to note regardless.

Silverblade Paladin $7.57 (+2.49):  Holy double striking double strikers, Batman, what a jump!  Where is Silverblade going to end up?  At the rate he is growing he could easily break $10 by next Monday.  The fact that he has an immediate impact on the board if you already have a creature out makes this a creature to watch.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $27.21 (+0.26):  Once again probably just statistic movement (low price cards being bought bringing the average up) but still Tami has kept moving consistently for the most part.

TRENDING DOWN:

Bonfire of the Damned $31.94 (-1.56):  BONFIRE IS STILL FALLING.  Sorry about that.  Sometimes I just feel the need to use my outside voice.

Cavern of Souls $20.54 (-1.16):  Without draw go to make a huge impact in standard right now and with control lists only running a handful of counters, it makes sense that Cavern's price is reflecting this current trend.

Entreat the Angels $28.12 (-0.28):  Althought Entreat hasn't fallen a ton, but I think this may be the highest price it will command for a while.  If you have some that you are looking to unload, this might be the best time for you to do so.

We are done with Avacyn Restored, so you know Dark Ascension is next!
All prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given day
TRENDING UP:

Hellrider $4.33 (+1.43):  *HELLLLLRIDER!!!  I hope you've got this guy lying around in abundance.  If you do make sure you keep an eye out for when he peaks, and then try and trade him off.  Otherwise if you get a sweet offer to trade someone this, I say go for it.
 *Cue the Screeching Heavy Metal vocals.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $17.18 (+1.73):  I haven't seen Sorin running amok in Standard at my LGS, but then again it could be an oversight on my part.  Whether this is Standard or Modern driving up Sorin's price it is important to note that Sorin was quite the expensive Mythic at one time and does something very similar to what  Ajani Goldmane did when WB tokens was a significant threat in standard.

Thalia, Guardian of Tharaben $5.68 (+0.18):  The fact that Thalia only costs 1W and not WW makes her an easy splash in decks that do not like opposing noncreature spells (cough, Planeswalkers, cough).

TRENDING DOWN:

Falkenrath Aristocrat $19.38 (-0.53):  Perhaps this is due to lack of play (although I don't think it is) or it could be due to lack of demand.  Watch for this to continue falling and get rid of yours now, unless you are using them.

Geralf's Messenger $10.84 (-0.38):  Maybe zombies' popularity is declining, huh.

Gravecrawler $11.65 (-0.22):  Nah, probably nothing.  Maybe.

Only a handful of movers in DA, but now we will look at INNISTRAD:
All prices are mid prices on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP:

Elite Inquisitor $1.60 (+0.13):  Elite Inquisitor is still trending up.  He may eventually make it to $2.  UW was a thing there for a moment, and Elite Inquisitor has the additional benefit of blocking (and attacking through) all manner of Vampires, Werewolves, and Zombies.

Garruk Relentless $14.32 (+0.81):  A gain is still a gain, although it is important to note that Garruk may be slowing down as noted by the last two days.

Geist of Saint Traft $30.76 (+0.83):  I don't need to tell you this guy is good, and it comes as no surprise that his mid price has finally surpassed $30 especially given the limited number of ways to remove him in standard right now.

Parallel Lives $3.57 (+0.14):  This is kind of like my pet project.  I feel like I have talked about this card with each article and will continue to until it shows signs of stopping.  EDH and casual players will keep this cards price steadily trending up.

Sever the Bloodline $1.86 (+0.22):  I would love to see this hit $2.  I would really love to see it hit $5.  It might, but it probably won't.  It is still one of the best pieces of targeted removal in the game right now and we haven't even seen what Dirmir and Orzhov will offer in Gatecrash (which might make Black an even more appealing color). 

Stromkirk Noble $3.08 (+0.13):  This may be the best thing you can play on turn 1 against some decks and perhaps we will see Captain Kirk move even more in the coming weeks.

TRENDING DOWN:

Bloodline Keeper $4.98 (-0.14):  No comments, just something to note that he is trending down.

The Innistrad Duals :  It's been a rough week for the Innistrad duals (except for Clifftop).  Not sure where these are going, other than that they are going down.

Snapcaster Mage $23.78 (-0.40):  Snaps is great, but right now Blue decks are playing White and Green for their (currently) more powerful cards.  The lack of a dedicated Ux control deck in standard is what is driving Snappy's current price down.

Alright, let's bring this thing home, M13!
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP:

Garruk, Primal Hunter $6.45 (+0.34):  Still green, still good, and still (for now) climbing.

Thragtusk $22.34 (+0.88):  Event deck schment deck.  Thraggy doesn't care.  He may be the new delver, but what is the only difference?  A Gold set symbol and a $20+ price tag, but Thragtusk doesn't care, he just keeps on gaining life and making beasts.

Thundermaw Hellkite $17.16 (+2.00):  $2 in a week?  Wonder what will happen this week?  Expect to see this hit $20 soon and get them while they are hot.

TRENDING DOWN:

And.... The list of M13 stinkers, err, sinkers :D

Ajani, Caller of the Pride (still not seeing play in Standard); Akroma's Memorial (still falling, still fun in EDH); Cathedral of War (still coming into play tapped); Disciple of Bolas (still not being played in black); Jace, Krenko, and Liliana (still falling, no sign of stopping); Vampire Nocturnus (why was this ever expensive in the first place?).


I really hope you enjoyed the article.  Please forgive me for my initial lack of enthusiasm, but alas, I am tired.  I would like to say, however, that right now we are in a state of standard that we haven't seen for quite a while.  Brews are cropping up everywhere and people are constantly finding new ways for the cards to interact.  Keeping a head of the curve when it comes to pricing will help you know when the big things are about to break and will help your collection flourish in the meantime.

Thanks for reading and please share this with your friends, follow this blog, comment, and let me know what you thought.  If you have any questions or comments post them!  Thanks for reading City of Traders and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!

Kyle