Belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!
Did you miss me? I hope so, because where else can you find everything you need to know about the different price trends happening in Standard? If you were curious as to where I've been the past couple weeks, you need only look at the different holidays that Monday evenings fell on this past year, and that should answer any questions you may have.
Tonight I am going to impress you with all of the different trends that are . . . trending . . . in Standard right now, which is business as usual, I am also going to talk about how I am going to handle the Gatecrash Previews/Spoilers/Release and finally I am going to talk about Rounding during trading, which should be interesting. So let's get it started, but first, two things.
First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.
Second some directions: In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it. This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.
Return to Ravnica:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Before I get started, some of my more observant readers may notice that the dates jump around just a bit especially around the holidays. This shouldn't alter the overall trend of the data. For reference, I am going to give the amount of money changed ie. the number I put in (parentheses) that is the gain/loss from the week and use the difference between today's date and the number from 12/16. With that, let's begin.
Abrupt Decay $6.00 (+0.38): I'm not sure if this is run off from Modern (the likely explanation), or Standard inspired price gain, but I do know that Abrupt is on the rise. I you have some that you didn't trade off when it was up so high weeks ago you may want to hold onto them and see where they go.
Chromatic Lantern $2.84 (+0.45): My take on the Lantern's price trend is a combination of, "Hey I want to play 5 Color _____, I probably need mana fixing" and "OOOOoooo Commander, shiny". If you find yourself falling into either of these categories you may want to pick these up.
Deathrite Shaman $12.53 (+3.45): I think I've been raving about him for a while now, but in case you missed it, this guy does work. He fits in Modern BRG, he ramps Standard's Reanimator Deck, and he is going to be an even bigger player if **Spoiler** mill becomes a thing after Gatecrash comes out. I see this card easily hitting $20+ and if you need a reference for that number just take a look at Noble Hierarch.
Rest In Peace $1.66 (+0.11): Usually you don't see sideboard cards getting incredibly expensive, but I wanted to make a note of the slight upward trend, just in case :D
Those are the only cards that show signs of growth, keep in mind now is the time to be thinking about how Gatecrash is going to affect card prices and to speculate accordingly. If you have a hunch feel free to trade for a couple extra copies of something at your next FNM. And now we are going to look at what is,
TRENDING DOWN:
Angel of Serenity $15.15 (-3.16): Down a few dollars, but still commanding a fairly high price, Angel of Serenity is still a fine finisher. If standard takes a faster track in the coming month we may see her price fall even more if you are looking to cash out on your copy and don't plan on running them, then it may be time to bail, otherwise hang on to yours and keep them handy.
Armada Wurm $6.00 (-1.65): This card's price was steadily dropping before the 16th and now that we have seen almost another month of prices it hasn't had a day of increase yet. Sell yours accordingly because I don't foresee this playing a huge part in post Gatecrash Standard.
Bloodcrypt and the Shocklands: I have noticed a trend down on these, but I wouldn't get rid of a single one in your collection until after all of Gatecrash has been spoiled entirely and you know what you want to play post rotation.
Detention Sphere $3.56 (-0.58): I'm still sad that this didn't command the $7-8 price tag it had longer than it did, but I suppose they can't all be winners. That said, depending on what kind of threats crop up in the future players may still find a use for this yet.
Dreadbore $3.61 (-0.51): My comment for this is and has been similar to my comment about D-Sphere, however, **Spoiler** I will say that I don't believe BR aggro, or RDWs can kill the new Gideon without this card. I could be vastly overlooking something but I stand by my statement. This could play a larger roll if Planeswalkers becomes a deck again after they add two cards to their arsenal.
Isperia, Supreme Judge $1.19 (-0.17): As of right now this card just isn't going to see play outside of Commander, and even then . . .
Jace, Architect of Thought $17.75 (-3.74): Although Jace has been steadily declining in price he seems to possibly be settling down around $17-18. From a financial standpoint I have been saying sell him since I started writing this blog, but for now I say, wait and see. If CMC 5 Jace starts seeing an increased level of play (which his price spike may suggest) then people may want to be paying 2UU instead to get the initial advantage and this could increase the demand for AoT.
Lotleth Troll $3.19 (-0.27): It looks like we may have to hold out until Dragons Maze until we see something to bring Lothleth back into the spotlight.
Mizzium Mortars $1.89 (-0.33): There still may be reason to KILL ALL THE CREATURES! and run Mortars, but until we find one I think Bonfire of the Damned is going to see more play than this card.
Rakdos's Return $5.96 (-0.75): I still like this card since it is comparable to Revelation (card advantage for you vs. card disadvantage for your opponent) and I would keep an eye on yours until we see how Control players decide to finish the game in the new Standard. Also getting your opponent to top decking and sticking them with damage has to be good in some capacity right?
Sphinx's Revelation $18.24 (-0.76): This only being down 76 cents tells me that this card isn't going anywhere fast. **Spoiler** Skullcrack may make this less playable (probably not), but I don't think it is going to have tooo terribly much of an effect.
Vraska the Unseen $9.19 (-0.95): While this card is in Standard, it will probably stay expensive, but after it rotates, it will probably drop to a reasonable amount.
Next up, Avacyn Restored
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Angel of Glory's Rise $1.83 (+0.64): Still moving up, but much slower now. I don't think this card is going to go up too much more, but you never know.
Avacyn, Angel of Hope $10.56 (+1.01): I have three words to describe this card's increase in price: Reanimator. Indestructible. Synergy. That about sums it up.
Bonfire of the Damned $26.53 (+0.37): I'm still skeptical about this card but if Gatecrash breeds another format with CRAZY mana ramp and people running lots of one, two, and three toughness guys then this card's price could skyrocket again, so watch out.
Cavern of Souls $23.81 (+3.03): This card is always going to be expensive. Depending on what counters spring up, this cards price will increase too. Speculate accordingly.
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight $6.62 (+1.48): I think I called this one before the Holidays. This card has a powerful effect that immediately impacts the board and I think it will continue to go up it may even double in price if the right set of circumstances happen.
Restoration Angel $15.36 (+0.57): Still good. With even more ETB triggers popping up in Gatecrash and its versatile splashability, this card will continue to see play and continue to command this price.
Vexing Devil $7.01 (+0.28): This card is good sometimes, and not bad others and has increased a bit over the past few weeks. If there is one thing Red mages love it's one drops and damage. I suppose that was two things. Oh well.
Zealous Conscripts $2.02 (+0.20): Yoink!
TRENDING DOWN:
Craterhoof Behemoth $8.70 (-3.07): Sell this. It looks like it's down hill from here.
Entreat the Angels $16.91 (-3.13): This card is good. Miracle is good and depending on how things turn out it could regain popularity again. But for now all signs point to selling these.
Silverblade Paladin $9.74 (-0.65): It looks like this card may have peaked. It will probably still play a roll after Gatecrash especially with the additional mana-fixing that GTC will provide so keep that in mind.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $24.54 (-1.73): Tami's popularity has waned a little since her peak, but she is still a powerful walker. If the all walkers deck shows up she will definitely be included thanks to her Draw power. But for now you could probably get away with selling them.
Temporal Mastery $9.28 (-0.36): This card's price was trending down but **Spoiler** since Dimir Charm was previewed this card plays quite well with its third mode. We may see Temporal actually warrant the high price tag it started with when AVR came out.
Dark Ascension is next!
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| All prices are are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Falkenrath Aristocrat $22.20 (+1.74): This card's price matured over the holidays and has since slowed down a bit. Watch for it to peak and start dropping if you don't see yourself running BR in the new Standard, otherwise hold on to your copies because you will likely keep them sleeved.
Havengul Lich $3.98 (+0.37): Something about Dimir's impending arrival must have people hyped up about playing with the graveyard and no one plays better than Havengul Lich. Pick up a few of these while they are around $4 and you may have some money on your hands if their price goes up.
Huntmaster of the Fells $26.14 (+3.76): Good cards have high prices. Gruul will only make this better. If you plan on running them get them before they hit $30. Otherwise, I recommend holding on tightly and not letting go.
Predator Ooze $4.83 (+2.72): I have no idea what is going on here. Seriously. Other than the fact that some decks simply cannot kill this card, I've got nothing. Can someone please enlighten me. Thanks.
TRENDING DOWN:
Geralf's Messenger $7.35 (-0.89) and Gravecrawler $9.16 (-0.45): Zombies (the deck) are dying. Which is ironic considering that they may already be dead (the zombies themselves). I don't think there is going to be anything from GTC that is going to renew their popularity.
Hellrider $9.18 (-0.28): Just because Mr. Walking Burn-spell is down in price doesn't mean he is out of the game. I like this card and so will the **Spoiler** Boros Battalion deck. Oh, I need to attack with 3+ creatures for good things to happen? I might as well get Hellrider's triggers too. WOO!
Not much else to see so lets look at Innistrad:
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Angelic Overseer $2.14 (+0.17): A small trend up. I don't think this is going to have a huge impact, but I wanted to mention it.
Army of the Damned $2.17 (+0.17): Once again this card's price has followed almost exactly in line with Angelic Overseer, I'm not sure if it means anything specific but I wanted to mention it.
Clifftop Retreat $10.66 (+0.42): No surprise here. Boros is coming up in the next set and people would like to be able to play their spells. Grab these if you need them/want to play WR.
Hinterland Harbor $9.35 (+0.66): No surprise here. Simic is coming up in the next set and people would like to be able to play their spells. Grab these if you need them/want to play UG.
Isolated Chapel $10.31 (+0.24): No surprise here. Orzhov is coming up in the next set and people would like to be able to play their spells. Grab these if you need them/want to play WB.
Kessig Wolf Run $1.69 (+0.19): I didn't mention any of the other Utility lands, even though some of their prices have increased. I mention Wolf Run because it literally spawned a deck, which is something to keep in mind going into the future, which will be filled with Tramply Trample RG creatures.
Past in Flames $2.26 (+0.25): Remember when I told you to buy these? I hope you did. I don't think their going to go down, which means eventually they have to/will keep going up.
TRENDING DOWN:
Bloodline Keeper $4.10 (-0.19): I don't think Gatecrash is going to bring a lot of Vampires for this card to help, which kinda bums me out because vampires are sooo cool!
Garruk Relentless $12.63 (-0.27): I opened one of these at the Innistrad pre-release. I should have traded/sold it then and there. I think there is a lesson to be learned about planeswalkers and hype. Nevertheless, Garruk will always find something to do in Standard so keep an eye on him.
Geist of Saint Traft $28.81 (-3.69): I would chalk this up to variance, but then again, it may be that Geist's price is going to come down a bit. Keep in mind also that when M14 hits, he will be a Legacy/Modern player only. You've got to think long term too.
Olivia Voldaren $13.70 (-2.48): I'm still not within my Swoop range (the price of Olivia where I swoop in and get every copy I can get my hands on) but I'm just going to sit here and bide my time. If she goes down enough, inevitably she will bounce back again.
Sever the Bloodline $2.17 (-0.19): I had high hopes. Oh well. Unless some crazy deck comes out with multiple copies of something then this may not be the primo removal spell I thought it was going to be. We will just have to wait and see.
Woodland Cemetery $9.16 (-0.96): I guess if you really needed to make a trade you could get rid of this, or if you had extra copies or something, but like I mentioned earlier with the Shocklands, hold onto your playsets of Rare lands until you figure out what deck you want to build.
Finally! M13
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| All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Akroma's Memorial $4.21 (+0.38): This card is sooo good (Commander). It is on the move and I recommend you grab a few before you can't find them for less than $8. Just a suggestion.
Chandra, the Firebrand $4.19 (+0.22): Chandra's one damage to something isn't really that much to talk about, however, her cast something twice for fun and profit is absolutely something to keep in mind especially when new cards come out. Keep an eye on her and snap up a few copies if she continues to go up, or if something sweet is spoiled that can abuse her.
Drowned Catacomb $3.17 (+0.13): This has nothing to do with Dimir. Shhhh, it's a secret to everybody.
Garruk, Primal Hunter $13.50 (+2.57): Garruk's price is up because Green likes tokens, card draw, and more tokens. I expect him to stay on the pricy side as long as Green mages keep playing fatties.
Gilded Lotus $3.15 (+0.34): I like this card for Standard Mana ramp and I like it for Commander Mana ramp. Pick a couple up and I don't think you will be disappointed.
Glacial Fortress $3.39 (+0.46): I surmise this price increase is due in part to people wanting to have good Mana fixing, and in part to a lower number of Core set packs being opened. If you don't already have a playset of these it really couldn't hurt to go ahead and get one.
Jace, Memory Adept $18.58 (+10.58): Sadly, I wasn't around to let everyone know when Jace's price started going up. Even sadder I didn't know how degenerate his price hype was going to be. Jace's price spike is due to **Spoiler** the turn 5-6 one turn kill from Jace's +0 ability and the new Duskmantle Guildmage who has an ability that says 1BU "Whenever a card is put into an opponent's graveyard from anywhere this turn, that player loses 1 life." In other words, if you activate the guildmage's ability twice and then use Jace's +0 its Game Over. I don't know how much higher Jace's price is going to go but I will say, people do love their combos/mill shenanigans.
Liliana of the Dark Realms $9.28 (+/-0.00): Lili's price hasn't "technically" gone up since the 16th, but if you look at the past 4-5 days then you will see the trend that I am pointing out. You're welcome :D
Master of the Pearl Trident $2.69 (+0.39): Here fishy fishy fishy.
Mutilate $2.27 (+0.05): Five cents isn't much at all, buuut I just wanted to point out that you can run a deck with all swamps that can produce all 5 different types of mana in the new Standard. Mutilate is going to be good in that deck. That is all.
Odric, Master Tactician $1.06 (+0.08): **Spoiler** Odric is a hipster. Odric had a form of battalion before it was cool. I suspect this price increase is directly linked to the fact that Odric will be included in at least one battalion brew.
Primordial Hydra $4.42 (+0.42): Similar to Predator Ooze, I have no idea what is going on here, other than the fact that some decks literally can't kill a big enough Hydra. Anyone have any insight?
Rootbound Crag $2.79 (+0.16): cough GRUUL cough.
TRENDING DOWN:
I'm tired :D and want to actually finish this at a reasonable time, so welcome to a list of sad M13 cards:
Ajani, Caller of the Pride $11.08 (-0.66)
Sublime Angel $24.82 (-1.47): Peaked
Thragtusk $20.86 (-1.52)
Thundermaw $37.67 (-1.62): Peaked
Yeah that is a good (sad) list of cards. Oh, by the way, just because those cards have peaked, does not mean they have lived out their usefulness, I just feel like this is the most money that you will be able to get for them, so if you are looking to profit, go ahead and trade/sell now.
Alright before I go I said I was going to talk about two things. First the way I am going to handle Gatecrash. I will begin tracking price movements when tcgplayer puts the full set of Mythics and Rares up for purchase on their website. I do not feel like it makes sense to begin tracking prices for only some of the cards in the set. If you have an issue with this, then my recommendation is to track the prices yourself and see if you can glean anything off of them. I will mention Gatecrash cards, but until the entire set officially goes up I will write **Spoiler** before anything I post about cards from that set (as seen above).
Now onward to the second topic of Rounding. Rounding is something that many of us as MTG players deal with on a daily basis at the trade table. If we check the website of our choosing and see that a card's price isn't a nice round number like $1.00 or 1.50 then we will either automatically in our heads, or actually out loud by saying something like "it's about $X.XX" round the number to something more pleasing.
Here is an example.
Johnny and Timmy are trading. Johnny has a Master of the Pearl Trident ($2.69) and wants Timmy's Gilded Lotus (3.15). Clearly there is a price discrepancy here. I see a couple of different scenarios playing out.
A) Johnny and Timmy value Master at $3. Johnny and Timmy value Gilded Lotus at $3 and the trade happens.
B) Johnny values Master at $3 and Timmy Values it at $2.50. Johnny and Timmy value Gilded Lotus at $3 and Johnny adds in a bulk rare to complete the trade.
C) Johnny values Master at $3 and Timmy values it at $2.50. Johnny values Gilded Lotus at $3 but Timmy values it at 3.50 and Johnny feeling they can't make a deal walks away.
In each scenario there are winners and losers and depending on how things play out someone walks away feeling better, or worse, about what has taken place. All due to rounding.
Scenario A:
Winner: Timmy, Johnny, and Mark Rosewater for inspiring me to use Timmy and Johnny. Here both players got what they wanted and didn't have to throw in anything to ensure the trade happened. Rounding up in one case and down in the other brought both players to mutual benefit.
Loser: No one (other than Spike who didn't get a mention). Here no one lost because the trade happened and both players got what they wanted.
Scenario B:
Winner: Timmy (technically) but Johnny is happy too. Here both players walk away happy so they are both winners, however Timmy technically won because he ended up with "more" value in the form of more than one card. This may be an inaccurate assessment however due to the fact that Johnny may have been more than happy to throw in an extra card to get the more sought after Gilded Lotus.
Loser: Johnny (technically). One could argue that Johnny "lost" because he gave up 2 cards for 1 and had his Master's price rounded down from $2.69 to $2.50 so he "lost" value. However, like I mentioned before he probably got what he wanted.
Scenario C:
Winner: Neither Timmy nor Johnny. No one won here because the trade didn't happen.
Loser: Both Timmy and Johnny could be seen as losers in this situation because neither got what they wanted. Since they couldn't come to an accord a trade didn't occur and neither was happy with the way things turned out.
So what do we learn from the three scenarios above? It is okay to sacrifice some "value" by rounding down your card's prices especially if someone has something that you are really after. Additionally it is okay to let someone round their cards up in order to get a little closer to what your card's price is. If you make someone happy in a trade by letting them get a little more "value" out of their card then you are more likely to have a pleasant trading experience and will also be more likely to make trades with them in the future.
Another technique (albeit a less common one) is to set a "Rounding Rule" before going into the trade. If a card is worth $2.25 do we round up to $2.50 or down to $2.00? This may sound silly, but if everyone is on the same page before the trade begins, you may find yourself with a more enjoyable experience.
I hope this has been informative and that it actually benefits you in your upcoming trades. If you liked this feel free to let me know. Until next week, cheers, and may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
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