Welcome to the second installment of City of Traders. If this is your first time, you are in for a treat. If you are a returning reader, I hope you enjoyed my first post and thank you for coming back. This week I am going to continue looking at the current financial state of Standard by examining the trends among Rare and Mythic Standard legal Magic the Gathering Cards. I am also going to look at how the Return to Ravnica Event decks that came out on October 26th are going to affect the prices of the Rares that they contained, as well as a breakdown of each event deck and its potential financial benefit.
However, before we get started, I would like to make two points.
First a disclaimer: As always, please take my advice at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices will do and that any advice offered is purely based on my own speculations/card price trends.
Second some directions: In order to view the images posted on this blog at full size, please follow these simple directions.
Step 1: Left click on the image to bring it up.
Step 2: Right click on the image to bring up a list of options.
Step 3: Left click on "View Image"
Step 4: Left click on the image to enlarge it. This will allow you to easily view it at full size.
Step 5: Marvel at how quickly prices can change.
Thanks for letting me make some points, and now ONWARD! To Ravnica:
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| All prices are mid prices on Tcgplayer.com at the given day |
TRENDING UP:
Deathrite Shaman $9.00 (+1.02): Still moving up mostly thanks to Modern, and a small part thanks to Reanimator. Modern Jund really likes this card and I foresee it continuing to climb. This is a fine buy especially if it continues to see Modern play.
Slaughter Games $1.23 (+0.10): Consistent growth is consistent growth, no matter how small. The fact that Slaughter Games is steadily on the rise shows that not only is it going to be a player in sideboards, but that it is also going to be a player in standard. I am secretly hoping that someone will main deck these and start winning (turn 4 Slaughter Games naming Thragtusk anyone?). Get these if you need them/want to turn a $1 card into a $2+ card.
Since these are the only two cards that have had consistent growth I am not going to remark on the cards that have slowed down, or dipped during the week and then have started to turn up. I would however like to talk about cards that are . . .
TRENDING DOWN:
Abrupt Decay $10.28 (-2.12): Do you hear that? Listen closely. I think it is the sound of Abrupt Decay's price falling. Sadly this has not warranted the high pre-order price that it commanded when the set first came out and if you still have them, you should bail on them to anyone who wants them.
Armada Wurm $17.36 (-1.13): Armada Wurm's price climbed and climbed but I believed it has peaked and will now fall until it settles into a more stable (but probably significantly lower) number. Since Armada Wurm is trending down I would recommend bailing now, especially if you are not planning on playing yours anytime soon.
Desecration Demon $2.94 (-0.24): I want this to be good. I want this to be Abyssal Persecutor, but it isn't. Even if you Heartless Summoning this bad boy and play him on turn 2, 9 out of 10 decks have an answer (the 10th deck is WUBRG Door to Nothingness) either by sacrificing a creature to keep the demon at bay or by just flat out killing it. This is going to be a bulk rare before this is all over.
Detention Sphere $6.53 (-0.37): O-Ring 2.O's price is not leaping or bounding. At this rate I could see this becoming a $3-$4 Rare. If you are not terribly attached to yours and don't need them to hose your crazy friend's Token EDH deck, then I would bail and trade yours off now.
Jace, Architect of Thought $44.96 (-2.13): I'm not going to say I called it, but I do believe I called it (Data for the Win!). Jace is still falling. Don't get me wrong, he is awesome, but he will continue to drop with time and eventually level out. The thing with Jace is, while he does a commendable job helping you be able to win the game, he differs from Jace the Mind Sculptor because he does not flat out win you the game when you play him.
Lotleth Troll $8.96 (-0.81): Still dropping in popularity = still dropping in price. I think what is hurting Lotleth Troll the most is the fact that he is not BR. If he were BR then, well let's just say things in standard would be different.
Mizzium Mortars $4.48 (-0.28): Why choose to talk about Mizzium Mortars when there are other cards like Jarad's Orders dropping as well? Because this is one of the cards whose price I believe will be impacted by the release of the Return to Ravnica Event Decks. More on this later.
The Guild Leaders $$$$$ --> $$$: This is a sad week for Ravnica's acting guild leaders. Every single one of them is down in price and has had a consistently bad week. Even Rakdos and Trostani (probably the two most playable) have continued to fall in price and don't show signs of stopping. If you are waiting to get these for EDH or to get them in general, keep waiting until they hit their lowest point, and then pick them up.
Supreme Verdict $5.88(-0.44): Turns out people would rather pay W instead of 1WWU for their boardwipes. Huh, go figure.
Vraska the Unseen $17.40 (-2.10): Vraska is still pre-order inflated. Still? Yes, still and she will continue to fall until she winds up around let's say $7-$8 and that is being generous. It seems for 5 mana green players would rather gain 5 life, get a 5/3 body and have a 3/3 waiting in the wings, than vindicate a card.
That is it for Return to Ravnica, now let's look at Avacyn Restored:
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| All prices are mid prices on Tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Sigarda, Host of Herons $10.96 (+0.08): I know it is not a lot. At all. But even so, Sigarda is hard to kill, in a very popular color combination, an evasive beater, AND moving up slowly in price. It could be that she will continue to trend up and may climb higher, or this could just be a flash in the pan. I say, wait and see.
Silverblade Paladin $5.08 (+0.76): Double strike seems good, especially when you can give it to literally ANY creature in standard. I can see why Silverblade's price is going up and the way it is moving, this could be one to watch out for.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $26.95 (+1.08) Will she ever stop? Yo, I don't know. Tami is moving up and up and could easily tie Jace, Architect of thought for the most expensive planeswalker in the format, or even more as Jace continues to come down in price, we could see Tamiyo pass him. You never do know.
Not a lot to see here, so let's look at what is
TRENDING DOWN:
Bonfire of the Damned $33.50 (-2.07) Bonfire is going to keep falling. Forget about how awesome these were and bail on yours now while they are still above $30.
Entreat the Angels $28.40 (-0.48) I'm not saying to get rid of your Entreats, I am saying that they are probably leveling out and may decline, or they could stay where they are with some natural small variations.
Temporal Mastery $10.66 (-0.38) I think this card's increase in price was due to the fact that people wanted to try it in their WU miracles deck, having since tried, its decline in price shows me that they no longer want it.
That is it for Avacyn Restored, now onward to Dark Ascension:
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| All prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP:
Hellrider $2.90 (+0.40): Just in time for Halloween Mr. Walking Burnspell is moving up. This might be a sweet pick up depending on how in demand this is at your local store. Keep in mind also that most people already have their playset, but depending on how high in demand this card is, getting in now could net you a sweet gain if he reaches $5+.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $5.50 (+0.11): Once again, what we are looking at here is consistency. Thalia is consistently rising and will most likely continue as long as there are good non creature spells to delay.
TRENDING DOWN:
Grave Crawler and Geralf's Messanger: Although Both have only come down slightly, this may be an early sign that Zombies just isn't doing what people want it to do in the new standard (read: winning) and that their popularity decline is reflecting in their price decline.
Next Innistrad:
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| Prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given date |
TRENDING UP:
Elite Inquisitor $1.47 (+0.15): Movement is movement and I like a man who can block some Zombies, even if I think Zombies is on the decline.
Garruk Relentless $13.51 (+0.20): Garruk, Garruk, Garruk is on fire, we don't need no . . . okay I won't go there, but any way you look at it, Garruk has had consistent growth and given the current popularity of Junk (GWB) I can see why.
Parallel Lives $3.43 (+0.33): **Editors Note: I have the price wrong in the picture. The current correct price is the one listed above** I like the way this card is moving. EDH dictates that this card will be expensive and awesome. Buy them now to sell them later.
Sever the Bloodline $1.64 (+0.16): Two words: Unconditional Removal. I don't care that it costs four, this card is sweet and people playing black (read: Jund players) want this card. It will continue to climb.
TRENDING DOWN:
Bloodline Keeper, Runechanter's Pike, Isolated Chapel, Sulfur Falls: I am getting tired and it is getting late. The numbers speak for themselves and right now, these cards are falling and don't look (for the time being) to be stopping.
M13
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| All prices are mid on Tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Garruk, Primal Hunter $6.11 (+0.30): I remember when Garruk was a very expensive card not too long ago. Right now he provides you a fresh grip in a set of colors (BRG) that does not have a great way of refilling its hand. I like drawing 3-5 cards and so should you.
Sublime Archangel $22.02 (+1.66): Who saw this coming? Not me. Whoops. Some times you call them and some times you don't. This is constant growth and it (as of right now) shows no signs of stopping. Speaking of calling them . . .
Thundermaw Hellkite $15.16 (+1.84) BAM! I knew this dude was going to do things and be good at stuff. Watch for Thundermaw to slowly creep back up and keep in mind how high he was there for a while.
Thragtusk $21.46 (+.76) I personally think thraggy is as high as he is going to go. With the release of the Return to Ravnica Event Deck, people can pay $24.99 MSRP at most stores and get Thragtusk+ so I don't see his price going up too much more. That said, and depending on the availability of the Event Decks he may still hit $25 yet, making him the most expensive Rare in Standard.
TRENDING DOWN:
Ajani, Caller of the Pride $13.68 (-0.84) Ajani will continue to fall due to lack of awesome playableness. How low will he go? I don't know but I know when he finally bottoms out, that is when I will be picking him up. I suggest you do the same.
Akroma's Memorial $4.32 (-0.28): Keep dropping you beautiful little EDH staple and when you finally bottom out, that is when I will buy you.
Cathedral of War $3.44 (-0.33) Does this still come into play tapped? Sorry buddy, no room for you in standard.
STILL TRENDING DOWN: Jace Memory Adept, Krenko Mob Boss, Liliana of the Dark Realms, Mutilate, Talrand, Sky Summoner, Trading Post, Vampire Nocturnus, Odric, Master Tactician, Worldfire.
Okay, now that we are done with that, I would like to say some things about the Event Decks.
Rakdos: Rack and Rage:
Total Rare Value: $23.66
Sweet Uncommons and Commons? Yes
A good buy? Yes - If you are looking to build BR aggro or Mono Red then this is a great deck to pick up to get the base set of cards you need to construct the deck.
Golgari: Creep and Conqure:
Total Rare Value: $43.85
Sweet Uncommons and Commons? Yes
A good buy? Yes - If you are looking to build Jund and need specific pieces like Thragtusk and Woodland Cemetery, then this is a great way to get what you want, and know what you are getting.
Now having said that, I will leave you with this: when a card sees additional print the supply increases and if the demand stays the same, then the price is bound to decrease. Keep this in mind in the week ahead, any card that was printed in either one of these Event Decks has the potential to decrease in price because it was printed in these Event Decks.
All right and with that we are done! Thanks again for reading and please, Please, PLEASE share this with your friends, follow this blog, comment, criticize, and most importantly let me know what you thought!!! If you have any questions or comments post them! Thanks for reading City of Traders and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
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