Hi, my name is Kyle Kreiger and I would like to welcome you to the very first update of my new weekly Magic the Gathering (MTG) financial blog, City of Traders! This blog will be updated on Mondays. In the blog I am going to look at the financial data that I have collected from TCGplayer.com on all of the different standard legal Rare and Mythic Rare Magic cards. I have elected to treat these Magic cards like stocks and in doing so will be looking at the different "market" trends that will inevitably pop up. Additionally, I am going to try and offer a little financial advice to anyone out there looking for it. I will go ahead and offer up this disclaimer (as will I every article where I offer advise): Please take my advise at your own risk! I am not a professional psychic and have absolutely no idea what card prices do and that any advice is purely based on my own speculations.
Now that you know what were are going to be doing here, let me tell you a little about myself and my history with Magic the Gathering and TCGs in general. I am a 23 year old who recently graduated with my Masters in Accounting from Clemson University. I am originally from South Carolina, but have recently moved to Louisiana to be with my lovely wife. I am about to begin a new job and have always enjoyed all things financial. I love reading, writing, and really enjoy a good story. As far as my history of trading card games and Magic the Gathering goes, imagine if you will a 5th grade boy from the 90s. This boy would inevitably get caught up in the Pokemon craze that swept over American youth and little did he know that Pokemon cards would have a huge impact on his future as a gamer. While I never really got into competitive Pokemon play, I did enjoy learning the game and collecting and owning the cards. After Pokemon came Yugioh where I learned far more about how to build and win with a competitive deck, and more importantly how to build and maintain a sweet collection of cards. As I got older, Yugioh was swept to the side when my friends and I began playing (the now dead) VS (read: Versus) System. If you are not familiar, VS was Marvel and DC's TCG that allowed you to play decks featuring different comic book characters. All of the cards revolved around superheros and really gave the game a great and wonderfully robust flavor. Once VS System fell out of favor I was introduced to a game called Magic the Gathering and a format called EDH. I began my Magic career after Lorwyn had come out and right before Shadowmoor hit the scene. I built a Rhys, the Redeemed GW Tokens EDH deck and a Standard Mono Red Burn Deck using cards like Keldon Marauders, Flame Javelin, and Boggart Ram Gang. Both of these decks were extremely budget, as I quickly learned that Magic cards could be very expensive. Since then I have been playing in different events from commander and standard to sealed and draft. Although I do not have any professional play experience I am constantly following which decks are winning and, more importantly, what cards people are playing in those decks.
But . . . enough about me, lets get to the numbers!
First, Return to Ravnica:
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| All prices are the Mid prices on tcgplayer.com at the indicated day. |
And now, the analysis. Keep in mind that all advise is purely speculation based on trends.
TRENDING UP:
Angel of Serenity $23.69: This Mythic is turning out to be one of the hottest creatures in standard right now. It is Control's finisher, One of Selesnya ramp's bombs, and one of Reanimator's non-Legendary targets. As its price has been slowly rising, it may be a good idea to pick these up now while they are still on the up and up, before they hit their peak.
Blood Crypt $14.08: The is the first of the "shocklands" that is creeping up slowly. I understand that these are always a great pick up at any price, but if you are planning a deck that will include the Rakdos shock then you may want to pick them up now as they are on the rise.
Deathrite Shaman $7.98: Although this blog is focused primarily on standard legal cards, it doesn't hurt that Modern is a thing. It also doesn't hurt that Deathrite Shaman was featured in Yuuya Watanabe's Modern Jund build. His deck packed the full 4 copies of this card and played them to great success. Even though Watanabe didn't win, he showed us that Deathrite Shaman is certainly a card. Pick yours up now while they are on the rise.
Hallowed Fountain $15.88: Another of the "shocklands" that is moving up rather than down. If you are building the miracle deck and you haven't gotten your 4 copies, I recommend picking them up now. Keep in mind that "shock lands" are always a strong pick up.
Slaughter Games $1.13: This card is my friend David Schumann's pick for the card most likely to have the biggest increase in value, since it is so low right now. This is seeing play in sideboards in both Standard and Modern and (barring a turn one Leyline of Sanctity) does a great job of picking apart an opponent's win condition. Grab a few now before you need them and they are more expensive.
Sphinx's Revelation $6.47: This one could go either way. Its price has been slowly rising up almost a dollar from two weeks ago, but I'm not convinced that it is going to sky rocket any time soon. Unfortunately, the Revelation has to compete with Entreat the Angels for Control's big X spell. If you need these immediately, go ahead and get them, otherwise I may stay away.
Temple Garden $15.00: Selesnya is hot right now and so are its "shocklands". These are moving up steadily and if you need them, go ahead and get them now before they creep up more.
TRENDING DOWN:
Abrupt Decay $12.40: These might be a big new modern staple, but right now their lack of play in standard is currently driving the price down. Having dropped almost $2 in a week, I don't see these going back up any time soon, bail on yours while the price is still high.
Counterflux $1.06: Unfortunately, Izzet drew the short end of the stick when it came to the cycle of uncounterable spells. Red Blue just isn't using this card right now and if you find someone who wants to go ahead and snag these off of you, feel free to let them, before this card ends up in your bulk box.
Epic Experiment $4.02: Poor Izzet. Their cards just aren't doing the "epic" things that standard is about right now. Trade this to your commander friend before it drops any more.
Jace, Architect of Thought $47.09: You heard it here folks, Jaceinator 4.0 has peaked and is going to just go down from here. Thanks to hype, demand, and general overall playability he was driven up to as high as $50.43, but I think that was his peak and it is going to be all down hill from there. Don't get me wrong, Jace is awesome and playable, but I think he has hit his high point.
Lotleth Troll $9.78: If you hold on to this card any longer, you are going to be looking at a lotleth money when you sell it. Okay, I'll leave the bad puns to other writers, but either way, the Troll is trending down and I don't see him coming up soon, the numbers don't lie folks.
Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius $7.71: The newest "might-be-titan" unfortunately isn't seeing much winning play and his price trend is reflecting that. Bail on your copies now before Niv joins the ranks of Esperia and Jarad.
Rakdos's Return $9.97: This was falling steadily and three days ago would have been an easy bail, however, over the past three days this has slowly turned upwards. Could just be a blip in the market, or this could be trending back upward. This is going to be one to watch and if it continues downward, then I would go ahead and get rid of yours.
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice $14.88: What a whirlwind for Trostani! They started very low, climbed incredibly fast, and have now apparently peaked and are trending down. I think this is another card that has hyped itself into a peak and will now slowly trend down. Go ahead and get rid of this one.
Vraska the Unseen: $19.50: It looks like the town of Ravnica is only big enough for only one high dollar planeswalker. Vraska has just been overshadowed by Jace in this set and at 5 cmc she just doesn't do enough to really warrant play. She is dropping quickly, I would get rid of yours while they are still above $10.
That is it for Return to Ravnica! Wow, a lot to process, but hopefully some good advice.
Now onward to the plane of Innistrad! We are going to look at Avacyn Restored first.
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| All prices are mid prices on tcgplayer.com at the given day |
TRENDING UP:
Entreat the Angels $28.88: This card. This card right here. You see this card? This is a card. Entreat has been moving up steadily and doesn't show any sign of stopping. Will it hit $30? Will it hit $35? I don't know, but the trend is moving that way.
Sigarda, Host of Herons $10.88: What we are looking for here is steady trends. Sigarda has shown steady upward growth and seems to be a good answer to the lack of removal in the format right now. Selesnya is a thing and she is fortunate to be in color. If you need these buy them before they go up any more.
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $25.87: Tami and Jace sitting in a tree... These two make quite a pair and as people have found this out, Tami's price has steadily climbed. Once again, if you need them, go ahead and get them now before you have to pay $30.
Temporal Mastery $11.04 and Terminus 11.08: It really is a miracle that these were as low as they were for as long as they were, Temporal Mastery may be a shot in the dark, but if you are playing miracles, why not take an extra turn or two? Terminus may be the best removal in the format right now (sorry Supreme Judgement) and its recent trend reflects this sentiment.
TRENDING DOWN:
Bonfire of the Damned $35.57: Get out while you still can. Bonfire was a great card, but its time in the sun has come and gone and it looks like the bonfire is headed for a burnout.
Dark Ascension time!
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| All prices are mid prices at tcgplayer.com at the given day |
Hellrider $2.15: This is one of those cards that people like to run in Rakdos as a walking burn spell and in Red Deck Wins as a high end bruiser. This card is on the rise and may stand to go up more.
Sorin, Lord of Innistrad $15.41: Tokens + Emblems + Intangible Virtue = Stuff? I'm not sure, but Sorin has been trending up steadily. Keep an eye on him.
Increasing Confusion, Devotion, and Savagery $1.50-1.74: These are going up. I'm not sure why, but I thought I would point it out. Is there something going on that I am not aware of?
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $5.39: Thalia is going up. Maybe because she hoses things? Maybe because there is a lack of first strike someone where? I'm not sure which one, but I'm sure that she is quite possibly a solid pick up.
Vault of the Archangel $2.13: This is another one of those cards that is easily splashable in "Junk Tokens" because of all of the great mana fixing right now. This might be a solid pick up, or then again, it may be a flash in the pan.
Last from Innistrad is Innistrad!
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| All prices are mid prices at tcgplayer.com at the given day |
Clifftop Retreat $8.35: As is true with all of the Innistrad Duals, Clifftop is rising steadily, the trick here is that the Boros Legion hasn't yet come crashing through the gate. If you would like to make an $8 investment right now and have $15 cards when Gatecrash comes out, pick these up now.
Elite Inquisitor $1.35: Pro Zombies is a thing. White sideboards are looking at this and once again, and if Boros makes WR humans playable, then this may certainly be a card.
Garruk Relentless $13.31: Garruk is trending up. Four mana planeswalkers can pull a strong price point and Garruk may just get there. Another one to keep an eye on.
Gavony Township $2.77: Once again, we see a utility land that has a popular color pair. This is a strong card in standard and can make an army huge in very little time. It also has a solid up trend.
Geist of Saint Traft $29.33: This guy baffles me. He is good, we all know he is good, and yet his price is subject to change pretty rapidly. Right now he is going up. He may continue going up, but then again, he could come back down. Just something to note.
Liliana of the Veil $26.40: I would be in error to not mention this. Liliana is going up. It might be standard, it might be modern, it might be commander (it's not commander), and regardless of why, she is steadily going up. If you need them, you may want to go ahead and get them.
Olivia Voldaren $18.55: Once again, someone played Olivia, realized how good she is, and she suddenly spiked. She may continue to go up, but then again, I could see her leveling out and coming back down to under $10. You may want to sell these now.
Parallel Lives $3.10: Get these cheap while you can. If you don't believe me look at this card: Doubling Season. I understand that Parallel Lives is only half of Doubling Season, but casual players love making MOAR tokens. I could see this continuing to steadily creep up.
Sever the Bloodline $1.48: Want unconditional, reusable, permanent (sorry Misthollow Griffin) removal? Need to kill you opponents Armada Wurm(s), token army, or undying creatures and need them to say gone? Sever the Bloodline is your man! I say grab these any time you can while they are cheap and enjoy the profits when they peak.
TRENDING DOWN:
Runechanter's Pike $1.85: If you think you are going to be able to turn a profit with these, the time has long passed. Gone are the days of free spells, and unfortunately gone are the days of Runechanter's Pike.
Sulfur Falls $10.99: With Izzet's overall underrepresentation Sulfur Falls are also falling in price.
Finally, and last but not least: Magic 2013!
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| All prices are mid prices at tcgplayer.com at the given date |
Faith's Reward $.95: As of right now, I hear Eggs is a thing. This card has almost doubled in price since Cifka won with his Second Sunrise build. As copies 5-8 of second sunrise it is understandable that Faith's Reward's price would go up. This could be a strong pick up if the card's price takes off. As a Modern side note: Keep an eye on Lotus Bloom, Second Sunrise, Reshape, and Silence to gain in the weeks ahead.
Sunpetal Grove $3.53: Selesnya is a thing, Dual lands are a thing.
Thragtusk $20.72: Yeah this guy. Apparently I missed the boat and didn't buy in when he was still $14 on 10/6. $7+ dollars later I wish I had gotten in. So here is the question, is he going to go keep going up? As on of the most powerful creatures in standard right now, the answer could very well be yes.
Thundermaw Hellkite $13.30: After a long downward slog, Red's Mythic 5 drop is back on the way up. If you are going to be playing this any time soon, you may want to go ahead and get in now, before he ends back up at $20.
TRENDING DOWN:
Ajani, Caller of the Pride $14.52: When Ajani hits his lowest low, buy him before Gatecrash comes out. Boros will drive his price back up. Profit.
Akroma's Memorial $4.60: Calling all Commander players. Remember when this was stupid expensive? If this is its only reprinting, I can definitely see this card getting back up to $10 in a year or two after M13 is long gone. This could be a strong buy as it creeps down.
Cathedral of War $3.77: This just isn't quite getting it done in standard, and unfortunately its price trend is showing that quite evidently.
Jace, Memory Adept $8.61: Remember Jace from earlier? Yeah, there is your Blue Jace planeswalker. Bail on these now.
Liliana of the Dark Realms $12.98: Remember Liliana from earlier? Yeah, there is your Black Liliana planeswalker. Bail on these now. Funny how these higher converted mana cost planeswalkers are outclassed by their cheaper incarnations.
Talrand, Sky Summoner $4.46: Poor Talrand, he and the Phyrexian mana spells didn't get to spend nearly enough time together. If you find someone who wants these, let them have them.
Other notable downward trends from M13 (without any explanation): Elderscale Wurm, Krenko, Mob Boss, Master of the Pearl Trident, Mutilate, Odric, Master Tactician, Trading Post, Vampire Nocturnus, and Yeva, Nature's Herald.
Alright, wow, you wouldn't believe how long that took to write! But I had fun writing it and and look forward to posting a weekly update. I hope you have enjoyed reading my ramblings and hope if you do decide to take my advise (at your own risk!) that you benefit from it. Please share this with your friends, follow this blog, comment, criticize, and most importantly let me know what you thought!!! If I get good feedback, then I will be way more willing to continue doing this. If you have any questions or comments post them! Thanks for reading City of Traders and until next time, may your games be great and may your trades be awesome!
Kyle
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