Monday, March 4, 2013

Horrowing Journey - 03/04/2013

Goooooood Evening everyone!  Welcome to City of Traders! 

As always thanks for joining me as we dive into what is happening in the world of Standard Magic the Gathering price trends.  Today I'm going to look at the fun things happening in what I believe is a wonderfully interesting Standard format.  I was going to do a price break down of the new Duel deck (Sorin vs. Tibalt) coming out in 11 days, but Wizards hasn't given us a list yet, so look for that next Monday.  With that having been said, let's dig in!

GATECRASH
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

There really isn't anything to mention here.  Most of the set is either leveling out, or steadily declining in price.  Look at this as a time to pick up singles that you didn't have and were looking for, or to invest in some sleepers that you think are going to blow up in the future (read: buy Crypt Ghasts).

TRENDING DOWN:

This is where almost all of the set falls right now.  If a card isn't staying consistently at the same price, then it is going down right now.  The biggest cards to cash in on because their prices are still high are going to be:

Boros Reckoner $21.99 (-2.32)

Aurelia, the Warleader $13.08 (-2.86)

Aurelia's Fury $11.05 (-2.92)

Domri Rade $18.99  (-1.36)

Duskmantle Seer $6.28 (-1.33)

Gideon, Champion of Justice $9.76 (-1.06)

Lazav, Dimir Mastermind $5.11 (-0.79)

Obzedat, Ghost Council $18.00 (-0.79)

Prime Speaker Zegana $7.34 (-1.14)

The overarching theme here is High dollar Mythics (excepting of course Boros Reckoner) which are currently not seeing a great deal of tournament play (excepting of course Boros Reckoner), thus causing their prices to steadily fall.  My advice?  Trade out of these cards if you can into more stable cards if you are looking to maintain value.

RETURN TO RAVNICA
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Abrupt Decay $6.95 (+0.45):  Uncounterable?  Check.  "Control" playable?  Check.  Kills annoying three drops that make you lose the game out of nowhere when comboed with a certain two cost instant and a relatively full graveyard?  Double Check.  Seems like a winner to me.

Mizzium Mortars $2.60 (+0.11):  Not a big jump, but a solid trend.  I would keep an eye on this card due to it's ability to indiscriminately hit (and more importantly kill) most of the popular creatures in Standard.

Rest in Peace $1.95 (+0.05):  Hey, it could be a thing.  It probably isn't but give me a break, it's a slow news day.

Sphinx's Revelation $19.04 (+1.05):  This card probably isn't going to go up too much more, but then again, it keeps proving itself and showing up in winning decklists.  I wouldn't trade out of any copies you have yet unless this takes a turn for the worse and heads in the other direction.

Supreme Verdict $4.20 (+0.21):  If you can't beat 'em, blow em to kingdom come.  I like Supreme Verdict a lot.  I remember a time when Wrath of God was quite expensive during it's time in Standard.  Granted the Blue in the cost makes it a little less accessable, it will still see play in the right decks.

Temple Garden $10.76 (+0.28):  Do you really need me to tell you again why this card is good?  I Didn't think so :D

TRENDING DOWN:

Angel of Serenity $8.75 (-0.71)

Armada Wurm $3.60 (-0.15)

Ash Zealot $4.44 (-0.26):  This was on the rise for a while when Mono Red Aggro was gaining popularity, now that people have found other decks to slot Boros Reckoner into Ash Zealot is reasonably seeing less play.

Jace, Architect of Thought $12.34 (-0.61):  Still trending down.  Any guesses as to where Jace will end up?

Vraska the Unseen $6.29 (-0.21)

Just a note, some of the Shocklands from RTR have lost a little value as well.  If you still don't have a playset of any of them now may be a good time to assemble one in case any future need arises.

AVACYN RESTORED
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight $8.25 (+0.25):

Gloom Surgeon $0.44 (+0.06):  I'm not sure exactly why this is happening, but I think Conley Woods may have something to do with it...

Griselbrand $10.95 (+0.96):  Turn 3 Crypt Ghast off of Arbor Elf.  Turn 4 Griselbrand, draw 7?  Hey it's a thing.  Respect the thing.  Oh and if that doesn't work, I guess we can just rip him out of the graveyard too.

Restoration Angel $17.33 (+0.86):  Make sure you look at the graph on this one.  That is a full week's worth of solid upward trend.  I could easily see this hitting $20 so you may want to get in now if you need some.

TRENDING DOWN:

Bonfire of the Damned $25.46 (-0.74):  Can't fool me with your off the top surprises, I knew you weren't going anywhere weeks ago.  In all seriousness, please trade this card off, at least until their are like 20 mana dorks in Standard again.

Entreat the Angels $10.99 (-0.67):  Not a good week for miracles.

Silverblade Paladin $9.47 (-0.52):  I mentioned last week that this was on the way down.  It doesn't look like it's stoping anytime soon either.  Trade accordingly.

Somberwald Sage $1.59 (-0.13):  With the green Craterhoof Behemoth version of Reanimator deck seeing less play it makes sense that this card's price is dropping.

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage $17.66 (-0.89):  Jammy (that's Jace and Tamiyo's celeberity nickname for those of you who may have been unaware) were the ultimate Planeswalker power couple for a while there, but recently a string of bad decisions, lover's quarrels, and a scandal involving a certain certain lady Planeswalker have caused the couples sad and untimely split.

Wolfir Silverheart $2.41 (-0.22):  Uh, this came as a surprise to anyone.  Shame.

DARK ASCENSION
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Nope!

TRENDING DOWN:

Geralf's Messenger $5.00 (-0.31)

Gravecrawler $6.29 (-0.16)

Hellrider $14.98 (-0.45):  Time to trade out of this one peeps.  It has peaked!

Huntmaster of the Fells $32.29 (-0.91):  Huntmaster is the man, but this may the highest we see his price for a while.  This is a card that is popular in Modern and Standard, so it should be pretty easy to unload if you are looking for something like that.

Predator Ooze $4.49 (-0.26)

Sorin, Lord or Innistrad $19.37 (-0.61):  TRADE OUT OF THESE IF YOU HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY AND ARE LUCKY TO GET EVEN CLOSE TO $19 FOR YOUR COPIES.  He's coming out in a Dual deck in 11 days.  Remember what happened to Koth and Venser when the last Planeswalker themed Dual deck came out?  Their prices dropped fast.  You will buy Dual decks, and you will make up the value in some way/shape/form once you buy it, so go a head, feel free to bail on this one now.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $5.83 (-0.32)

INNISTRAD
All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Hinterland Harbor $9.49 (+0.13):  Lands R Good.

Isolated Chapel $13.53 (+0.54):  O S M R

Kessig Wolf Run $2.37 (+0.35):  Remember when there was an entire deck named after this card?  Well it may no longer be the figurehead of any specific Standard Decks anymore, but it still makes attacking with your RG deck on turn 6-7 with 8-9 mana in play all the more fun.  This is headed up.  Get in now if you need them, but don't expect this one to go too too much higher.

Liliana of the Veil $33.60 (+1.66):  Although this card has turned in the past few days, it is important to note that it was headed up.  I would keep an eye out here and make your move based on what its price does in the next few days.

Mayor of Avabruck $2.94 (+0.35):  PUMP ALL THE HUMANS!!!  I hope you took my advice last week.  This is definitely a steel at $3 especially if this card keeps going all the way to $5-6.

Nephalia Drownyard $1.15 (+0.16)

Snapcaster Mage $22.98 (+0.76):  I would say we are going to see Snapcaster back up to $25 by next week.  He is showing up in more and more RWU builds and will always see play, so it makes sense that his price is going up.

Witchbane Orb $0.78 (+0.19):  Know how to stop a bullet?  Wear Body armor.  This does effectively null all direct damage, all while conveniently making all of your creatures immune to "target player sacrifices..."  I don't think this is going to skyrocket, but don't let this one slip out of your trade binder for less that it's worth.

TRENDING DOWN

Angelic Overseer $2.14 (-0.11)

Bloodline Keeper $3.35 (-0.25)

Clifftop Retreat $13.90 (-1.04)

Garruk Relentless $10.99 (-0.38)

Stromkirk Noble $4.70 (-0.16)

Sulfur Falls $6.78 (-0.20)

All prices are mid on tcgplayer.com at the given date
TRENDING UP!

Akroma's Memorial $5.51 (++0.12):  I'm going to keep mentioning this every week until it stops going up.

Drowned Catacombs $4.27 (+0.28):  There are some Magic players that are of the opinion that people shouldn't get to do whatever they want and that they shouldn't be able to cast whatever spells they fell like.  Those players like to say "No"  They are called Control Players, and they use UB.

Elvish Archdruid $0.91 (+0.07):  This is why I love writing this column.  I get to see every little movement and every little change of every card's price every day.  This could be nothing, or it could be the start of the next Standard Elfvolution.  Knowledge!

Mutilate $2.99 (+0.37):  Swamps + Boardwipe = Dead stuffs.  Black mages have a lot of tools at their disposal right now.  If only someone could put all of them together in just the right mix, then win a tournament with them, I imagine their prices would skyrocket.  If only....

Omniscience $5.95 (+0.95):  I'm surprised it took this long.  This card is SOLIDLY trending up.  Get in now before it becomes another one of those expensive cards.

Primordial Hydra $6.50 (+0.51):  +1/+1 Counters are fun!  But only fun.  Not actually constructed playable.  Never constructed playable :D

Rootbound Crag $4.03 (+0.13):  Gruul mages need mana too.

Stuffy Doll $1.34 (+0.09):  Casual and Commander favorite, Stuffy is on the rise!  Don't expect much, but some decks may want to be seen playing Boros Reckoners 5-whatever.

TRENDING DOWN:

Jace, Memory Adept $17.16 (-0.31):  Has anyone actually used this to successfully one shot anyone yet?  Seriously, let me know :D

Master of the Pearl Trident $2.26 (-0.12):  Turns out this may actually not be the next Lord of Atlantis.  HOWEVER!  If a Fish deck wins a big name legacy tournament packing 4 copies of this card, its price will spike, so this could be a super looooong term sleeper.

Sublime Archangel $17.41 (-2.52):  Well the bubble burst.  This card was hovering around 19.99 for a while and it finally has started to really drop.  Trade out now if you can.

Thragtusk $14.27 (-0.22):  Thraggy's decline has slowed, but it hasn't stopped.  Bummer.

Thundermaw Hellkite $30.89 (-1.51): I think Thundermaw is going to keep declining if you haven't taken my advice and traded out of yours yet, I would recommend doing so soon.

And with that we wrap up another fun week of City of Traders.  I hate that I couldn't bring you the analysis of the new Duel deck this week, but hey, there is always next time :D

On a side note, in case you missed this article on the mothership this week, I wanted to make you aware of the fact that Paradise Mantle the linchpin of the featured deck has shot up from ~$2.00 to $8.75 (as of today).  So, go and dig your copies out of that old box of Fifth Dawn Uncommons that you have sitting at the bottom of your closet collecting dust and see if you can do something with yours.

Thanks for reading and remember Never stop Trading!

Kyle

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